Predictive utility of the Rockall scoring system in patients suffering from acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

Abstract

BACKGROUND Acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB) represents a significant clinical challenge due to its unpredictability and potentially severe outcomes. The Rockall risk score has emerged as a critical tool for prognostic assessment in patients with ANVUGIB, aiding in the prediction of rebleeding and mortality. However, its applicability and accuracy in the Chinese population remain understudied. AIM To assess the prognostic value of the Rockall risk score in a Chinese cohort of patients with ANVUGIB. METHODS A retrospective analysis of 168 ANVUGIB patients’ medical records was conducted. The study employed statistical tests, including the t -test, χ 2 test, spearman correlation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, to assess the relationship between the Rockall score and clinical outcomes, specifically focusing on rebleeding events within 3 months post-assessment. RESULTS Significant associations were found between the Rockall score and various clinical outcomes. High Rockall scores were significantly associated with rebleeding events (r = 0.735, R 2 = 0.541, P < 0.001) and strongly positively correlated with adverse outcomes. Low hemoglobin levels (t = 2.843, P = 0.005), high international normalized ratio (t = 3.710, P < 0.001), active bleeding during endoscopy (c 2 = 7.950, P = 0.005), large ulcer size (t = 6.348, P < 0.001), and requiring blood transfusion (c 2 = 6.381, P = 0.012) were all significantly associated with rebleeding events. Furthermore, differences in treatment and management strategies were identified between patients with and without rebleeding events. ROC analysis indicated the excellent discriminative power (sensitivity: 0.914; specificity: 0.816; area under the curve: 0.933; Youden index: 0.730) of the Rockall score in predicting rebleeding events within 3 months. CONCLUSION This study provides valuable insights into the prognostic value of the Rockall risk score for ANVUGIB in the Chinese population. The results underscore the potential of the Rockall score as an effective tool for risk stratification and prognostication, with implications for guiding risk-appropriate management strategies and optimizing care for patients with ANVUGIB.