Predictive validity of delay discounting behavior in adolescence: A longitudinal twin study.

Abstract

A standard assumption in the delay discounting literature is that individuals who exhibit steeper discounting of hypothetical rewards also experience greater difficulty deferring gratification to real-world rewards. There is ample cross-sectional evidence that delay discounting paradigms reflect a variety of maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology. We sought to determine whether a computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) taps into behavioral impulsivity in a community sample of adolescent twins (N = 675). Using a longitudinal design, we hypothesized that greater HDD at age 14–15 predicts real-world impulsive choices and risk for substance use disorders in late adolescence. We also examined the genetic and environmental structure of HDD performance. Individual differences in HDD behavior showed moderate heritability, and were prospectively associated with real-world temporal discounting at age 17–18. Contrary to expectations, HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity. Although a significant association between HDD behavior and past substance use emerged in males, this effect was mediated by cognitive ability. In both sexes, HDD failed to predict a comprehensive index of substance use problems and behavioral disinhibition in late adolescence. In sum, we present some of the first evidence that HDD performance is heritable and predictive of real-world temporal discounting of rewards. Nevertheless, HDD might not serve as a valid marker of substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females.

Cognitive, emotion control, and motor performance of adolescents in the NCANDA study: Contributions from alcohol consumption, age, sex, ethnicity, and family history of addiction.

“…As observed in the younger, no/low-drinking youth, the exceeds-threshold drinking youth, who were generally in the older age range, exhibited a preference for a smaller, more immediate award at the expense of a larger delayed reward. The pattern of discounting behavior exhibited by the exceeded-threshold youth is typical of heavy drinking adolescents and may convey some ongoing risk for real-world temporal discounting (Isen, Sparks, & Iacono, 2014; Stanger et al, 2013). …”

Delay discounting of different outcomes: Review and theory

“…This finding indicates a genetic contribution to the degree of delay discounting, because both types of twins have similar environmental influences on delay discounting, yet the correlation was stronger in twin pairs sharing more genes. Subsequent studies have replicated and extended these findings (Anokhin, Grant et al, 2015; Isen et al, ; Sparks et al, ). Although the studies with twins indicate that delay discounting has a heritable component, the search for the particular loci associated with delay discounting remains ongoing (see MacKillop et al, ), and is beyond the scope of this review.…”

Age and impulsive behavior in drug addiction: A review of past research and future directions

“…Field et al (2007) showed that heavy drinkers in late adolescence were more likely to discount hypothetical monetary and alcohol rewards than light drinkers in late adolescence. However, another longitudinal study failed to identify a significant association between early adolescence delay discounting rates and drug use problems in late adolescence (Isen et al, 2014). Regarding tobacco use, several studies have shown steeper discounting rates in adolescent cigarette smokers (Audrain-McGovern et al, 2004; Audrain-McGovern et al, 2009; Reynolds et al, 2007), although the effect seems to be smaller than adults (Reynolds et al, 2004).…”