Predictors of Recidivism Over 3 Years Among Substance-Using Women Released From Jail

Abstract

This study examines predictors of recidivism over 3 years for 624 women released from a county jail using a comprehensive range of standardized measures derived from gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic recidivism models. Although more than a dozen factors were related to recidivism in the univariate analysis, the multivariate analysis shows that recidivism can be reliably predicted (area under the curve = 0.90) with just four factors: age, no custody of children, substance use frequency, and number of substance problems. Exploratory analysis of women who recidivated in post-release months 1 to 3, 4 to 12, and 13 to 36 revealed that the effects of several variables (age, super optimism, and number of weeks in the jail treatment program) were dependent on the time elapsed since release from jail, whereas others (substance use and custody) had persistent effects over time. These findings support the development of re-entry services tailored for female offenders who address both gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic risk factors.A rrest and incarceration rates have dramatically increased for women during the past two decades, particularly for drug-related offenses (Mauer, Potler, & Wolf, 1999). A recent Department of Justice report shows that although the overall population of inmates in county and city jails decreased from 2010 to 2013, the number and proportion of female inmates increased by 10.9% (Minton & Golinelli, 2014). As more attention is focused on understanding the factors related to successful outcomes for women who are released from in-custody settings (Lewis, 2006), the question of whether existing models of risk for

A Time-Varying Model of Risk for Predicting Recidivism Among Women Offenders Over 3 Years Following Their Release From Jail

“…This study extends prior research predicting recidivism from baseline data (Scott, Grella, et al, 2014) conducted with a sample of women offenders who participated in a drug treatment program in Cook County Jail by examining the relative contributions of multiple post-release time-varying predictors of recidivism over 3 years. Although more than half of the sample returned to custody within the first year following release, another 20% had recidivated by the end of the 3-year observation period.…”

“…T his study examines the time-varying effect of risk factors for recidivism over 3 years among a sample of women offenders following their release from a jail-based substance use program to the community. We build on a prior study (Scott, Grella, Dennis, & Funk, 2014), in which we systematically examined baseline predictors of recidivism over 36 months, with a focus on determining the predictive value of variables derived from gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic recidivism models. Several variables…”

The Effects of Age at Prison Release on Women’s Desistance Trajectories: a Mixed-Method Analysis

“…Proponents of the "good marriage" effect, or the influences derived from strong bonds to prosocial partners, base their claims on the experiences of White men who matured during the 1950s and were more likely to partner with domesticated women who did not further introduce criminal elements into their adult lives [68,104]. While these findings are important, they do not speak to the experiences of contemporary drugaddicted female offending samples, many of whom are racially minoritized, living in concentrated disadvantage, and partnered with criminally involved men whose physically and psychologically abusive behaviors exacerbate the desistance process [97,108,125]. Research findings regarding the effects of marriage on women's desistance are largely equivocal.…”

Reducing Economic Disparities for Female Offenders: The Oxford House Model

“…Studies also show that most women who have been incarcerated return to their original community upon release, and these communities are usually low income and high crime, with a lack of employment opportunities (Scott, Grella, Dennis & Funk 2014); and to social networks that provide little segue to employment in the private sector (Richardson, Wood, & Kerr 2013). Thus, both geospatial effects on employment and weak networks and contacts facilitate employment difficulties for returning women.…”