Preliminarily Screening Geographical Hotspots for New Rooftop PV Installation: A Case Study in Thailand

Abstract

As rooftop PV deployment accelerates around the world, forecasts of rooftop PV penetration by geographical region and customer group are essential to guide policy and decision-making by utilities. However, most state-of-the-art forecasting tools require detailed data that are often unavailable for developing countries. A simplified analytical tool with limited data is proposed to preliminarily identify the rooftop PV “hotspots”—that is, geographical areas where many new investments into rooftop PV investments are likely to occur. The tool combines the assessment of financial and technical indicator in form of the optimal PV-to-load ratio indicating the maximum penetration of solar PV, and the capital-to-expenditure ratio indicating the ease of such investment. Using Thailand as a case study, the results from this tool show that under the self-consumption and net-billing scheme, the Northern and Northeastern regions are marked as the potential hotspots where the utility’s impact will be realized early or strongly or both. The average LCOE and self-consumption level for all customer classes and regions are in the range of 0.084–0.112 USD/kWh and 41.33–73.13% of PV production, respectively.