Principles of organizing earthquake forecasting based on multiparameter sensor-WEB monitoring data

Пулинец, С. А.; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Davidenko, Dmitry; Budnikov, Pavel

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202019603004

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…One can see that they fall into the range of 20%-22% of positive deviation. This coincides with our previous earthquake results in the Kamchatka region [43]. We can conclude that by estimating the ionospheric anomaly size on the level of deviation 20%-22%, we can estimate the earthquake magnitude.…”

Section: Determination Of Earthquake Forecast Parameterssupporting

confidence: 91%

From Hector Mine M7.1 to Ridgecrest M7.1 Earthquake. A Look from a 20-Year Perspective

et al. 2021

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The paper provides a comparative analysis of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere and atmosphere for two strong earthquakes of the same magnitude M7.1 that happened in the same region (North-East from Los Angeles) within a time span of 20 years, the Hector Mine and Ridgecrest earthquakes. Regardless of the similarity of their location (South-Eastern California, near 160 km one from another), there was one essential difference: the Hector Mine earthquake happened during geomagnetically disturbed conditions (essential in the sense of ionospheric precursors identification). In contrast, the quiet geomagnetic conditions characterized the period around the time of the Ridgecrest earthquake. The Hector mine earthquake happened in the middle of the rising phase of the 23-rd solar cycle characterized by high solar activity, while the Ridgecrest earthquake happened by the very end of the 24th cycle under very low solar activity conditions. We provide a comprehensive multi-factor analysis, determine the precursory period for both earthquakes and demonstrate the close similarity of ionospheric precursors. Unlike the majority of papers dealing with earthquake precursor identification based on the “abnormality” of observed time-series mainly determined by amplitude difference between “normal” (usually climatic) behavior and “abnormal” behavior with amplitudes exceeding some pre-established threshold, we used the technique of cognitive recognition of the precursors based on the physical mechanisms of their generation and the morphology of their behavior during the precursory period. These permits to uniquely identify precursors even in conditions of disturbed environment as it was around the time of the Hector Mine earthquake. We demonstrate the close similarity of precursors’ development for both events. The leading time of precursor appearance for the same region and similar magnitude was identical. For the Hector Mine it was 11 October 1999—5 days in advance—and for 2019 Ridgecrest it was 28 June—7 days before the mainshock and five days before the strongest foreshock.

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Section: Determination Of Earthquake Forecast Parameterssupporting

confidence: 91%

From Hector Mine M7.1 to Ridgecrest M7.1 Earthquake. A Look from a 20-Year Perspective

et al. 2021

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“…However, newly formed ions have different chemical potentials; what is to introduce should consider in the one-component approximation we introduce the correction to the chemical potential. The increase of the water molecules chemical potential indicates the strength of the nucleation process and can be used as an indicator of an imminent earthquake according to Boyarchuk et al, 2010 and demonstrated already within multiparameter analysis (Ouzounov et al, 2018a;Pulinets et al, 2020).…”

Section: Air Temperature Observationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Transient Effects in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Preceding the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha–Nepal Earthquakes

Ouzounov¹,

Пулинец²,

Davidenko³

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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We analyze retrospectively/prospectively the transient variations of six different physical parameters in the atmosphere/ionosphere during the M7.8 and M7.3 earthquakes in Nepal, namely: 1) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); 2) GPS/TEC; 3) the very-low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals at the receiving stations in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Varanasi (India); 4) Radon observations; 5) Atmospheric chemical potential from assimilation models; and; 6) Air Temperature from NOAA ground stations. We found that in mid-March 2015, there was a rapid increase in the radiation from the atmosphere observed by satellites. This anomaly was located close to the future M7.8 epicenter and reached a maximum on April 21–22. The GPS/TEC data analysis indicated an increase and variation in electron density, reaching a maximum value during April 22–24. A strong negative TEC anomaly in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) occurred on April 21, and a strong positive anomaly was recorded on April 24, 2015. The behavior of VLF-LF waves along NWC-Bishkek and JJY-Varanasi paths has shown abnormal behavior during April 21–23, several days before the first, stronger earthquake. Our continuous satellite OLR analysis revealed this new strong anomaly on May 3, which was why we anticipated another major event in the area. On May 12, 2015, an M7.3 earthquake occurred. Our results show coherence between the appearance of these pre-earthquake transient’s effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere (with a short time-lag, from hours up to a few days) and the occurrence of the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events. The spatial characteristics of the pre-earthquake anomalies were associated with a large area but inside the preparation region estimated by Dobrovolsky-Bowman. The pre-earthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and VLF/LF and suggest that they follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern that has been seen in other large earthquakes worldwide.

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Identifying pre-seismic ionospheric disturbances using space geodesy: A case study of the 2011 Lorca earthquake (Mw 5.1), Spain

Tachema

2024

Earth Sci Inform

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Principles of organizing earthquake forecasting based on multiparameter sensor-WEB monitoring data

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

From Hector Mine M7.1 to Ridgecrest M7.1 Earthquake. A Look from a 20-Year Perspective

From Hector Mine M7.1 to Ridgecrest M7.1 Earthquake. A Look from a 20-Year Perspective

Transient Effects in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Preceding the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha–Nepal Earthquakes

Identifying pre-seismic ionospheric disturbances using space geodesy: A case study of the 2011 Lorca earthquake (Mw 5.1), Spain

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