Prioritizing risks in sustainable construction projects using a risk matrix-based Monte Carlo Simulation approach

Qazi, Abroon; Shamayleh, Abdulrahim; El-Sayegh, Sameh M.; Formaneck, Steven D.

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2020.102576

Cited by 72 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…This result highlights the relative importance of the detection rating factor and the application of FMEA instead of risk matrices (Haji Shahverdi and Zomorodian 2020), since the detection rating factor summarizes a lot of information, which can be taken into account during the assessment. Additionally, the application of the FMEA instead of risk matrixes can be advised in other operation fields (Qazi et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The complexity of the risk assessment can usually be managed using three different methods: quantitative, qualitative and applying both. Typical approaches in quantitative assessment methods and processes are failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and its variants (Liu et al 2013), risk matrixes (RM) (Losiewicz-Dniestrzanska 2015) and their variants (Qazi et al 2021), as well as the combination of these methodologies, such as the partial risk map (PRISM) methodology (Bognár and Benedek 2021). The FMEA methodology can be used to assess the risk of potential or existing failures of specific processes and prevent their occurrence.…”

Section: Contextual Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Case Study on a Potential Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis in Assessing Compliance Risks

Bognár

Benedek

2021

Risks

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Assessing and reducing compliance risks can now be considered one of the core criteria for business success. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is widely used in engineering, its application in the financial sector is quite novel, primarily related to compliance risk assessment. This paper presents the results of exploratory research based on the potential application of FMEA in a focus group of compliance experts at one of the largest Central and Eastern European commercial banks. This study aims to establish a process for assessing compliance risks that builds on the strengths of both the qualitative and quantitative assessment methods. Applying FMEA based on a nominal group technique and further statistical analysis provides an opportunity to compare expert assessments and the consensus level of the participants. As a result, the similarity or difference of the assessment patterns can be quantified, providing objective feedback on the evaluation. Finally, this paper proposes lifting the detectability of failures as an evaluation dimension to the same level of importance as the probability and impact of non-compliance and using agreement testing statistical methods.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Contextual Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Case Study on a Potential Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis in Assessing Compliance Risks

Bognár

Benedek

2021

Risks

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“…Monte Carlo [32], ontology [33], Bayesian network, and other methods have been applied in construction risk identification. BIM technology [34], queuing method [35], particle swarm optimization [36], combined dynamic weighting method [37], work decomposition structure (WBS)-risk decomposition structure (RBS) risk identification matrix [38], and other methods have been applied in construction risk evaluation.…”

Section: Status Of Construction Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Construction Based on Bayesian Network

Liu

Jiao

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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In recent years, the accident rate of urban rail transit PPP (public–private partnerships) project under construction has been relatively high, and the issue of security risks has attracted great attention from all walks of life. Therefore, it is necessary to identify, analyze, and evaluate the issue of security risks of the urban rail transit PPP project. This paper takes the PPP project of urban rail transit as the object. Through offline interviews and surveys and online questionnaires, this paper focuses on identifying and analyzing the risks brought by the introduction of PPP mode to the urban rail transit project and its action mechanism. The risk evaluation method based on Bayesian network model is studied, which is described from three dimensions: risk occurrence probability, risk reasoning, and risk sensitivity. Finally, an example of Xuzhou Metro Line 3 is given to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. This study provides a reference basis for relevant practitioners and promotes the healthy development of the industry.

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“…Banyak penelitan yang telah berhasil menerapkan metode Monte Carlo dalam melakukan prediksi diantaranya dengan simulasi Monte Carlo menguji pengaruh pandemic COVID19 terhadap volatilitas pengembalian minyak, yang berhasil menyimpulkan bahwa selama krisis virus corona terdapat fakta bahwa terjadi penurunan volatilitas harga minyak yang merupakan akibat dari krisis covid-19 [11]. Di Uni Emirat Arab Simulasi Monte Carlo, juga digunakan untuk mengoperasionalkan proses baru dalam memprioritaskan risiko proyek sehingga dapat dilakukan penanganan dini terhadap resiko yang berdampak besar yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan data matriks risiko [12].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Monte Carlo Prediksi Tingkat Prevalensi Stunting Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Zaimy¹,

Defit

Nurcahyo

2021

jidt

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Stunting merupakan kondisi gagal tumbuh pada anak balita (bayi di bawah lima tahun) akibat dari kekurangan gizi kronis sehingga anak terlalu pendek untuk usianya. Menurut data yang ada, angka prevalensi stunting di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota tahun 2020 cukup tinggi yakni sebesar 8,28%. Hal ini menjadi perhatian pemerintah pusat dengan menetapkan Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota sebagai salah satu Kabupaten/Kota Lokasi Fokus Intervensi Penurunan Stunting Terintegrasi Secara Nasional. Hasil penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membantu Pemerintah Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota dalam perencanaan konvergensi program/intervensi sebagai salah satu upaya percepatan pencegahan stunting dan menurunkan persentase balita stunting di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota. Data penelitian ini menggunakan angka prevalensi stunting dari tahun 2018 sampai tahun 2020 yang berasal dari data jumlah balita dan jumlah balita stunting dari 22 puskesmas yang berada di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota. Selanjutnya data tersebut diolah menggunakan metode Monte Carlo untuk memprediksi tingkat prevalensi stunting tahun 2021. Berdasarkan pengujian yang dilakukan menggunakan metode Monte Carlo, didapatkan hasil tingkat prediksi stunting yang tertinggi berada pada puskesmas Pakan Rabaa dan puskesmas Suliki dengan angka prevalensi stunting sebesar 11,70%. Adapun tingkat akurasi yang diperoleh sebesar 93,73 %. Metode Monte Carlo cocok digunakan untuk prediksi angka prevalensi stunting di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota dilihat dari tingkat akurasinya yang cukup tinggi dari hasil pengolahan data.

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Prioritizing risks in sustainable construction projects using a risk matrix-based Monte Carlo Simulation approach

Cited by 72 publications

References 73 publications

Case Study on a Potential Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis in Assessing Compliance Risks

Case Study on a Potential Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis in Assessing Compliance Risks

Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Construction Based on Bayesian Network

Monte Carlo Prediksi Tingkat Prevalensi Stunting Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

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