2021
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2107.06684
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Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

Jaša Čalogović,
Mateja Dumbović,
Davor Sudar
et al.

Abstract: The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, w and the drag parameter γ. A very short computational time of DBM (< 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of … Show more

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