Probabilistic estimation of coastal dune erosion and recession by statistical simulation of storm events

Li, F.; Gelder, Pieter van; Vrijling, J.K.; Callaghan, David P.; Jongejan, Ruben; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

doi:10.1016/j.apor.2014.01.002

Cited by 33 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Scarping occurs on a variety of dune types in a number of different environments (Vellinga, ; Carter, ; Pye and Neal, ; Cooper et al, ; van Gent et al, ; van Thiel de Vries et al, ; Roelvink et al, ; Ruz et al, ; Pattanapol et al, ; Wakes, ). Factors such as the maximum wave height, maximum surge level, tide fluctuation, flood height in the case of a river, the time interval between significant wave events, and the previous morphology of the dune play a fundamental role in determining the degree of erosion and scarping (Carter and Stone, ; Christiansen and Davidson‐Arnott, ; Cooper et al, ; Fiore et al, ; van Rijn, ; Lopes et al, ; Li et al, ; Bonte and Levoy, ). In the following we investigate the nature of wind flow over a small foredune scarp on the Sir Richard Peninsula, South Australia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow dynamics over a foredune scarp

Piscioneri

Smyth

Hesp

2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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The nature of wind flow over a small, 0.6 m high foredune scarp is investigated on the Sir Richard Peninsula, South Australia during a variety of incident wind directions and speeds. The study provides additional supporting evidence that the presence of the scarp and the dune exerts a strong influence on a landwards trending reduction in wind velocity and an increase in turbulence, with the greatest area of turbulence occurring near and at the foredune scarp base. For an incident oblique wind, an alongshore helicoidal flow is formed within a separation region along the scarp basal region. In this region, the coefficient of variation (CV) of wind speed is high and displays significant fluctuations. The flow at the scarp crest is compressed, streamlined and accelerated, turbulence is suppressed, and local jets may occur depending on the incident wind approach angle. Jets are more likely where the incident flow is perpendicular or nearly so. A flow separation region does not develop downwind of the scarp crest where the morphology of the foredune stoss slope downwind of the scarp is more convex (as in this case) rather than relatively flat, and possibly due to the presence of vegetation at the scarp crest. A tentative model of the flow regions developed across a backshore–scarp–foredune region during oblique incident flow is provided. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow dynamics over a foredune scarp

Piscioneri

Smyth

Hesp

2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…[] for the German Bight, Corbella and Stretch [, ] for South Africa, Li et al . [, ] for the Dutch coast, and Serafin and Ruggiero [] for Oregon on the north‐west coast of the United States. The models considered in those studies all differ in the way they account for non‐stationarity and/or interdependencies between variables and also in their definition of “sea‐storm events.” Here we make use of these earlier applications and develop a generic model that is functionally similar to several of the earlier models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Wahl

Plant²,

Long³

2016

JGR Oceans

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13-Sea-storm time series are simulated with a multivariate probabilistic model 14 -Erosion and flooding risk are assessed accurately with a joint probability approach 15 -Return water levels and impact hours could be larger than recently observed 16 Abstract 21We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying 22 interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting 23 potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine 24 relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and 25 therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate 26 distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we 27 explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if 28 we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters 29 in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. 30 We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100-year return period could be up 31 to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the 32 observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash -where total water levels 33 exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations -could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% 34 (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-35 stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little 36 adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which 37 accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record 38 lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions 39 that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management 40 strategies. 41 Key words 42Multivariate sea-storm model; elliptical copulas; coastal erosion and flooding; northern Gulf 43 of Mexico 44 3 Introduction 45Erosion and flooding occur on sandy coastlines when the total water level (TWL) exceeds 46 critical thresholds of backshore features. Ruggiero [2013] defined TWL as the superposition 47 of astronomical tide (η A ), storm surge (or non-tidal residual; η NTR ), and the extreme wave 48 runup statistic (R2%; e.g., Stockdon et al. [2014]), all of which can be derived with various 49 numerical or empirical models. The impacts of extreme oceanographic events, in terms of 50 erosion of barrier islands and sandy beaches and flood damages in low-lying coastal areas, 51 also strongly depend on how long critical TWL thresholds are exceeded (i.e. the event 52duration is important). For long-term simulations of erosion, the duration of calm periods 53 between successive sea-storm events are also relevant since they determine how much the 54 beach or dune can recover before the next extreme eve...

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“…Douglass, Roemmich & Stammer ), and recession (e.g. Li, van Gelder, Vrijling, Callaghan, Jongejan & Ranasinghe ) have been reported. Meanwhile, little is known on the feedback and projection assessments of such global changes that are typical of a particular marine environment in relation to the potentiality of scallop coastal aquaculture, especially in culture areas with similar oceanic climate forcing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Implications of marine environment change on Japanese scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) aquaculture suitability: a comparative study in Funka and Mutsu Bays, Japan

et al. 2014

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The determination of the causes for the changes in marine environment in areas with similar oceanic climate forcing on most suitable sites for scallop aquaculture can help to ensure long-term sustainability of the coastal ecosystem. This study assessed aquaculture suitability sites using dominant indicators of marine ecological dynamics on Japanese scallop culture in Funka and Mutsu Bays, Japan as comparative examples. Data sources comprised of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), four dimensional-variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system, Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), in situ and buoy measurements. The suitable sites were ranked on a scale of 1 (least suitable) to 8 (most suitable). In the most suitable sites in aquaculture operational areas, Funka Bay had a high proportion (51.1%) than Mutsu Bay (13.7%) for the best performed model. Peaks of aquaculture suitability scores were attributed to potential effects of currents. Extreme sea temperatures (>24°C) in summer 2010 were associated with low performance of the 2010 model in Mutsu Bay and mortality of scallops based on sea temperature-depth visualizations. Future global warming effects are likely to decrease the most suitable culture sites in Funka Bay and loss of similar areas in Mutsu Bay. Thus, change in marine environment influences scallop culture development. Such concepts could form scientific basis for aquaculture planning on designated system of larval distribution and stock management of cultured species to minimize mortality and economic losses.

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Probabilistic estimation of coastal dune erosion and recession by statistical simulation of storm events

Cited by 33 publications

References 21 publications

Flow dynamics over a foredune scarp

Flow dynamics over a foredune scarp

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Implications of marine environment change on Japanese scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) aquaculture suitability: a comparative study in Funka and Mutsu Bays, Japan

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