Probabilistic Geological Uncertainties Assessment: Lessons Learned

Gorbovskaia, O. A.

doi:10.2118/189015-ms

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

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Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel

Popova

2018

Day 2 Thu, November 01, 2018

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Assessment of geological uncertainties based on probabilistic models has become widespread in the last few decades. One of the main problems of probabilistic modeling is the complexity of justifying ranges of variable parameters. Analogs play an important role in solving this issue. In this paper, the specifics of utilization of analogous information in probabilistic geological modeling are considered, and tools for integrating analogs and actual data in the model at different states of geological exploration are proposed. So, to justify the range of acceptable values of a parameter with analogs, it is rational to use statistical criteria, rather than minimum and maximum values among analogs list. This leads to reduction of sample size influence on estimate reliability. With a small amount of information, distribution type of an analyzed quantity can be proposed analytically. Most geological parameters can be described by normal and lognormal distributions. For complex quantities, the uncertainty of which is formed by several factors, the distribution type depends on their exploration maturity. As a rule, the greater the uncertainty, the stronger the mode of distribution is shifted towards smaller values. The refusal to use analog data in a probabilistic model should be made only if the object studies are sufficient to characterize the entire volume of the accumulation. In other cases it is recommended to use both actual field data and parameters collected from analogs.

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Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel

Popova

2018

Day 2 Thu, November 01, 2018

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Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel (Russian)

Popova

2018

SPE Annual Caspian Technical Conference and Exhibition

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Evaluation the Geological Uncertainties to Increase the Benefit of Offshore Project

Shi¹,

Chen²,

He³

et al. 2020

Day 1 Mon, November 02, 2020

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The quality of oil and gas reservoirs, initial production and the recovery factor are important factors affecting the revenue of development projects. Understanding geological potential and risk is of great significance for judging the uncertainty of a project, avoiding risks, and improving project returns. Reservoir depth, sand thickness, connectivity, permeability, porosity, oil viscosity, etc. determine the quality of reservoirs. In addition, well pattern, well type (horizontal or vertical wells), well spacing, reservoir pressure, artificial lifting method, injection fluid and sand wettability play important roles in the final recovery factor. This research takes an oil field in the Bohaibay as an example, and analyzes how to make full use of seismic data, geological data, and drill stem test (DST)data to understand geological uncertainties, to tap underground potentials, and to increase the project revenue, thereby promoting project implementation.

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Probabilistic Geological Uncertainties Assessment: Lessons Learned

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel

Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel

Analogy in the World of Geological Uncertainties, or How Reservoir Analogs May Refine Your Probabilistic Geomodel (Russian)

Evaluation the Geological Uncertainties to Increase the Benefit of Offshore Project

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