Probabilistic Issue of Reliability for Power Machinery Operating in Coal Fired Power Plants

Abstract

The paper presents results of reliability analysis made for lignite fired 370 MW rated power units installed in the Belchatow Power Plant (Poland). The concept of standardized power unit and the method of a histogram with a set number of observations in each class were applied in a study. The study includes analysis of probability distributions of operation times and repair times for the main power unit components. Empirical probability distribution functions have been identified and their parameters estimated in the study. The final forecast includes an estimation of such reliability measures like expected operation time, expected failure rate, average repair time and expected annual failure duration.

Design and Assessment Methodology for System Resilience Metrics

“…Researchers use lognormal and exponential probability distributions for TTR (O'Connor, ). We collected the mean TTR (MTTR) of each generator (unit) (Buchta, Oziemski, & Pawlik, ; Cadwallader, ; Oyedepo, Fagbenle, & Adefila, ; Podofillini, Sudret, Stojadinovic, Zio, & Kröger, ) and we fit an exponential probability distribution for the TTR. We assume that the generator is operable after this TTR.…”