Probabilistic modeling of asteroid diameters from Gaia DR2 errors

Abstract

The Gaia Data Release 2 provides precise astrometry for nearly 1.5 billion sources across the entire sky, including several thousand asteroids. In this work, we provide evidence that reasonably large asteroids (diameter > 20 km) have high correlations with Gaia relative flux uncertainties and systematic right ascension errors. We further capture these correlations using a logistic Bayesian additive regression tree model. We compile a small list of probable large asteroids that can be targeted for direct diameter measurements and shape reconstruction.