Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of San José de Cúcuta, Colombia

Abstract

This work evaluated the probabilistic seismic hazard of San José de Cúcuta (Colombia) using the methodology developed by Hanks and Cornell. Seismic hazard curves were obtained using a set of ground movement prediction equation which relate the average annual rate of earthquake exceedance against maximum acceleration values, assuming that the occurrence of the events presented in the area within the time period analyzed follows a Poisson´s distribution. Additionally, the average maximum acceleration values were calculated for a set of return periods, which were compared against the effective peak ground acceleration value for the city established in the current anti-seismic design code in Colombia. For the return period of 475 years, maximum acceleration values greater than those defined in the regulation were obtained with two of the soil movement prediction equations. With the results obtained, the level of high seismic threat in which the city is located has been corroborated and it is proposed to increase the maximum horizontal acceleration for anti-seismic design code from 0.35g to 0.40g.