Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Vanuatu

Suckale, Jenny; Grünthal, Gottfried

doi:10.1785/0120080188

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The seismicity pattern and seismogenic source dynamics are known to have significant variations with depth (e.g., Prozorov and Dziewonski, 1982;Christova, 1992;Tsapanos, 2000;Allen et al, 2004;. This has been considered by scientists in other parts of the globe (e.g., Stirling et al, 2002; Suckale and Grünthal, 2009). Hence, considering a single set of seismicity parameters over the entire depth range may generate an incorrect hazard estimation.…”

Section: Layered Polygonal Seismogenic Source Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

Nath

Adhikari

Maiti

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Seismic microzonation is a process of estimating site-specific effects due to an earthquake on urban centers for its disaster mitigation and management. The state of West Bengal, located in the western foreland of the AssamArakan Orogenic Belt, the Himalayan foothills and Surma Valley, has been struck by several devastating earthquakes in the past, indicating the need for a seismotectonic review of the province, especially in light of probable seismic threat to its capital city of Kolkata, which is a major industrial and commercial hub in the eastern and northeastern region of India. A synoptic probabilistic seismic hazard model of Kolkata is initially generated at engineering bedrock (V 30 s ∼ 760 m s −1 ) considering 33 polygonal seismogenic sources at two hypocentral depth ranges, 0-25 and 25-70 km; 158 tectonic sources; appropriate seismicity modeling; 14 ground motion prediction equations for three seismotectonic provinces, viz. the east-central Himalaya, the Bengal Basin and Northeast India selected through suitability testing; and appropriate weighting in a logic tree framework. Site classification of Kolkata performed following in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations places the city in D1, D2, D3 and E classes. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a surface-consistent level -i.e., the local seismic hazard related to site amplification performed by propagating the bedrock ground motion with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years through a 1-D sediment column using an equivalent linear analysis -predicts a peak ground acceleration (PGA) range from 0.176 to 0.253 g in the city. A deterministic liquefaction scenario in terms of spatial distribution of liquefaction potential index corresponding to surface PGA distribution places 50 % of the city in the possible liquefiable zone. A multicriteria seismic hazard microzonation framework is proposed for judicious integration of multiple themes, namely PGA at the surface, liquefaction potential index, NEHRP soil site class, sediment class, geomorphology and ground water table in a fuzzy protocol in the geographical information system by adopting an analytical hierarchal process. The resulting high-resolution surface consistent hazard, liquefaction and microzonation maps are expected to play vital roles in earthquake-related disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.

show abstract

Section: Layered Polygonal Seismogenic Source Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

Nath

Adhikari

Maiti

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although this approach was originally developed for conditions in central Europe, it has been proven to be well applicable to the Italian region , and even for a subduction environment (Suckale and Grünthal, 2009). We used this approach and below discuss the feasibility of its application to Taiwan.…”

Section: Magnitude Completeness and The Declustering Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

Chan

Cheng³

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 M_L =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation

show abstract

“…In this study, the approach proposed by Burkhard and Grünthal (2009) was applied for the de-clustering process. The approach was originally developed in central Europe; however, it also performs well for the Taiwan region (Chan et al 2012b), as well as for subduction environments (Suckale and Grünthal 2009). The seismic catalog used in this study is obtained from Cheng et al (2010).…”

Section: The Long-term Seismicity Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in Chiayi, Taiwan

Chan¹,

Wu²,

Cheng³

et al. 2013

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

show abstract

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Vanuatu

Cited by 14 publications

References 56 publications

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in Chiayi, Taiwan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About