2024
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-63878-z
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Probabilistic sunspot predictions with a gated recurrent units-based combined model guided by pinball loss

Zhesen Cui,
Zhe Ding,
Jing Xu
et al.

Abstract: Sunspots play a crucial role in both weather forecasting and the monitoring of solar storms. In this work, we propose a novel combined model for sunspot prediction using improved gated recurrent units (GRU) guided by pinball loss for probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, we optimize the GRU parameters using the slime mould algorithm and employ a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess to tackle challenges related to sequence prediction, such as self-correlations and non-stationarity. To address … Show more

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