Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1339-2016

Cited by 39 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) probably began with the seminal papers of Lin and Tung (1982) and Rikitake and Aida (1988). Uncertainty quantification is one of the main goals of PTHA, and progressively more refined uncertainty treatment was achieved following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (e.g., Geist and Parsons, 2006;Burbidge et al, 2008;González et al, 2009;Horspool et al, 2014;Hoechner et al, 2016;Selva et al, 2016;Davies et al, 2017;Grezio et al, 2017;Power et al, 2017). PTHA is becoming the established good practice for managing risk assessment and risk mitigation measures (Chock et al, 2016;Løvholt et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources

Volpe

Lorito

Selva

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (SPTHA) is a computationally demanding task, as it requires, in principle, a huge number of high-resolution numerical simulations for producing probabilistic inundation maps. We implemented an efficient and robust methodology using a filtering procedure to reduce the number of numerical simulations needed while still allowing for a full treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, to avoid biases in tsunami hazard assessment, we developed a strategy to identify and separately treat tsunamis generated by near-field earthquakes. Indeed, the coseismic deformation produced by local earthquakes necessarily affects tsunami intensity, depending on the scenario size, mechanism and position, as coastal uplift or subsidence tends to diminish or increase the tsunami hazard, respectively. Therefore, we proposed two parallel filtering schemes in the far-and the near-field, based on the similarity of offshore tsunamis and hazard curves and on the similarity of the coseismic fields, respectively. This becomes mandatory as offshore tsunami amplitudes can not represent a proxy for the coastal inundation in the case of near-field sources. We applied the method to an illustrative use case at the Milazzo oil refinery (Sicily, Italy). We demonstrate that a blind filtering procedure can not properly account for local sources and would lead to a nonrepresentative selection of important scenarios. For the specific sourcetarget configuration, this results in an overestimation of the tsunami hazard, which turns out to be correlated to dominant coastal uplift. Different settings could produce either the opposite or a mixed behavior along the coastline. However, we show that the effects of the coseismic deformation due to local sources can not be neglected and a suitable correction has to be employed when assessing local-scale SPTHA, irrespective of the specific signs of coastal displacement.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources

Volpe

Lorito

Selva

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Seminal Seismic PTHA (SPTHA) was performed using crude source and tsunami representations (Lin and Tung, 1982;Rikitake and Aida, 1988;Tinti, 1991). Since then, the methodology has evolved dramatically (Geist and Parsons., 2006;Annaka et al, 2007;Power et al, 2007;Thio et al, 2007;Burbidge et al, 2008;González et al, 2009;Sørensen et al, 2012;Hoechner et al, 2016;Miyashita et al, 2020), also in the framework of large programs (e.g., Horspool et al, 2014;Basili et al, 2021). SPTHA methodology for spatio-temporal and kinematic source treatment and the basic uncertainty framework were mostly transcribed from Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA, Esteva, 1967;Cornell, 1968;a historical perspective: McGuire, 2008).…”

Section: Existing Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

et al. 2021

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Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

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“…A framework for modern PTHA was first presented in the pioneering work of Geist and Parsons (2006). This framework formed the basis for developing numerous PTHA research works (e.g., Burbidge et al, 2008;Otero, 2008;Taubenböck et al, 2008;Suppasri et al, 2012;Yadav et al, 2013;Horspool et al, 2014;Omira et al, 2015;Shin et al, 2015;El-Hussain et al, 2016;Griffin et al, 2016;Hoechner et al, 2016;Zamora and Babeyko, 2020). 7 years after the 2004 event, the massive 2011 Japan tsunami raised the need to consider the complexity of the earthquake rupture in the PTHA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

et al. 2021

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Tsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The deterministic approach is based on a “credible” worst case tsunami, which is often selected from historical events in the region of study. Within the probabilistic approach (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis can be carried out in particular regions where historical records of tsunami heights and runup are available. In areas where these historical records are scarce, synthetic series of events are usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, the sea level variation and the currents forced by the tidal motion are either disregarded or considered and treated as aleatory uncertainties in the numerical models. However, in zones with a macro and meso tidal regime, the effect of the tides on the probability distribution of tsunami hazard can be highly important. In this work, we present a PTHA methodology based on the generation of synthetic seismic catalogs and the incorporation of the sea level variation into a Monte Carlo simulation. We applied this methodology to the Bay of Cádiz area in Spain, a zone that was greatly damaged by the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We build a database of tsunami numerical simulations for different variables: faults, earthquake magnitudes, epicenter locations and sea levels. From this database we generate a set of scenarios from the synthetic seismic catalogs and tidal conditions based on the probabilistic distribution of the involved variables. These scenarios cover the entire range of possible tsunami events in the synthetic catalog (earthquakes and sea levels). Each tsunami scenario is propagated using the tsunami numerical model C3, from the source region to the target coast (Cádiz Bay). Finally, we map the maximum values for a given probability of the selected variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing a set of thematic hazard maps. 1000 different time series of combined tsunamigenic earthquakes and tidal levels were synthetically generated using the Monte Carlo technique. Each time series had a 10000-year duration. The tsunami characteristics were statistically analyzed to derive different thematic maps for the return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years, including the maximum wave elevation, the maximum current speed, the maximum Froude number, and the maximum total forces.

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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

Cited by 39 publications

References 24 publications

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

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