Probability Analysis Method of Power System Cascading Failures Caused by Extreme Hot Weather

Abstract

In recent years, natural disasters happened frequently, which caused more and more failures of power system. To study the transmission lines failure under extreme hot weather, firstly the line's temperature changing with time is forecast based on the heat balance equation and the line's failure probability is calculated according to the historical statistics of failure rate. Then a test system to simulate the power grid under extreme hot weather is built and the curve of line's failure probability changing with time is obtained. The results provide a reference to power sector to guarantee the security and stability of the power grid.