Prognostic Implications of Initial Radiological Findings of Pulmonary Fibrosis in Patients with Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Prospective Multicentric Study

Abstract

Pulmonary fibrosis detected during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection may significantly influence patient prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of initial high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings of pulmonary fibrosis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and to examine how these findings relate to disease severity and clinical outcomes, with a particular focus on the development and validation of predictive scoring systems. In this multicentric prospective cohort study from January 2023 to January 2024, 120 adult patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring hospitalization were enrolled from two Romanian university hospitals. Patients were categorized based on the presence (n = 60) or absence (n = 60) of pulmonary fibrosis signs on admission HRCT scans, identified by reticular opacities, traction bronchiectasis, honeycombing, and architectural distortion. Biochemical analyses, severity scores (SOFA, APACHE II, NEWS 2), and novel compound scores combining clinical and radiological data were assessed. Patients with HRCT evidence of pulmonary fibrosis had significantly higher severity scores and worse clinical outcomes. The HRCT score alone was a strong predictor of severe COVID-19 (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.885), with a best cutoff value of 9.72, yielding 85.7% sensitivity and 79.8% specificity. Compound Score 1, integrating SOFA, APACHE II, and HRCT scores, demonstrated excellent predictive performance with an AUC of 0.947, sensitivity of 92.5%, and specificity of 88.9%. Compound Score 2, combining systemic inflammation markers (SIRI, SII) and NEWS 2, also showed a strong predictive capability (AUC = 0.913), with 89.2% sensitivity and 85.7% specificity at the optimal cutoff. Regression analysis revealed that Compound Score 1 had the highest hazard ratio for severe COVID-19 outcomes (HR = 4.89; 95% CI: 3.40–7.05), indicating its superior prognostic value over individual markers and traditional severity scores. Initial HRCT findings of pulmonary fibrosis are significantly associated with increased disease severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The HRCT score is a valuable prognostic tool, and, when combined with clinical severity scores into Compound Score 1, it enhances the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcomes with high sensitivity and specificity. These compound scores facilitate the early identification of high-risk patients, guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing patient management to improve outcomes.