Prognostic nomogram for penile cancer, an analysis based on SEER database

Abstract

BackgroundWe aimed to establish a prognostic nomogram for Penile Cancer (PC) patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database.MethodsData of 1694 patients between 2010 and 2015 were downloaded and extracted from the SEER database. Then, they were randomly divided into the development group (70%) and the verification group (30%). Following, the univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was respectively used to explore the possible risk factors of PC. Factors which significantly related to the overall survival (OS) were used to establish the nomogram. Further, the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curve were used to assess the nomogram, respectively. An internal validation was carried out to test the accuracy and effectiveness of nomogram. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier calculation was used to predict the further survival status of these patients.ResultsMultivariate Cox proportional hazards regression demonstrated that the independent prognostic risk factors associated with PC were age, stage T, N and M, and grade, with a moderate c-index of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.706-0.757] in development group and 0.743 (95% CI, 0.703-0.782) in verification group. Meanwhile, the areas under the ROC (AUC) of 3-year and 5-year survival were 0.739 and 0.727, respectively. The survival calibration curves of 3-year and 5-year brought out a high consistency. ConclusionOur study obtained a satisfactory nomogram to reveal the survival of PC patients, which could be helpful for clinicians to assess the situation of PC patients and to implement the further treatment.