Prognostic Utility of dNLR, ALRI, APRI, and SII in COVID-19 Patients with Diabetes: A Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has necessitated the identification of biomarkers that can predict disease severity, particularly in vulnerable populations such as individuals with diabetes. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of inflammatory and liver function markers, specifically derived Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (dNLR), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-lymphocyte ratio (ALRI), AST to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI), and Systemic Inflammation Index (SII), in COVID-19 patients with and without diabetes. This cross-sectional study included 336 participants, comprising 168 patients with diabetes matched with 168 without, based on gender, body mass index (BMI), and COVID-19 severity at hospitalization. The study was conducted at Victor Babes Hospital for Infectious Diseases and Pulmonology from January 2021 to December 2023. All participants had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and met the inclusion criteria of being 18 years or older with type 1 or type 2 diabetes as per American Diabetes Association guidelines. At 3 days post symptom onset, significant differences in inflammatory and liver function markers were observed between the two groups. The dNLR, ALRI, APRI, and SII were notably higher in diabetic patients. At a dNLR cutoff of 2.685, the sensitivity and specificity were 70.312% and 65.978%, respectively, with an AUC of 0.624 (p < 0.001). The ALRI showed a cutoff of 0.812, with a sensitivity of 76.429% and specificity of 69.541% (AUC 0.752, p < 0.001). These markers demonstrated statistically significant hazard ratios at both 3 and 7 days, indicating their predictive relevance for severe COVID-19 outcomes. For instance, at 7 days, SII demonstrated a hazard ratio of 2.62 (CI: 1.29–5.04, p < 0.001), highlighting its strong prognostic capability. The study successfully identified significant differences in inflammatory and liver function markers between COVID-19 patients with and without diabetes, with these markers showing good predictive value for disease severity. The results underscore the potential of these biomarkers, particularly ALRI and SII, as valuable tools in managing COVID-19, aiding in the timely identification of patients at increased risk of severe outcomes.