Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California’s water resources

Anderson, Jamie; Chung, Francis I.; Anderson, Michael L.; Brekke, L. D.; Easton, Daniel; Ejeta, Messele Zewdie; Peterson, R. J.; Snyder, Richard L.

doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9353-1

Cited by 84 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Various authors showed that the evapotranspiration trends as a response to climate change would be found within a range of increases between 10 % and 20 %. Since the end of the 1980's, Martin et al (1989) and reported increases of 17 % with an air temperature increase of 3 • C based on measurements taken during summer in northeastern Kansas, with temperatures ranging between 24 and 35 • C. In agreement with the studies done in California by Anderson et al (2008) with an air temperature increase of 3 • C causing an ET o increment of 18.7 %, these authors show that if the CO 2 concentration increases this percentage diminishes. Goyal (2004) in the region of Rajasthan, India reported that reference evapotranspiration increments of 12.7 % can happen with air temperature increments of 1 %.…”

Section: Scenarios Obtainedsupporting

confidence: 75%

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

Moratiel¹,

Snyder

Durán³

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature (T max ), minimum temperature (T min ), dew point (T d ), wind speed (U ) and net radiation (R n ) trends during the 1980-2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

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Section: Scenarios Obtainedsupporting

confidence: 75%

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

Moratiel¹,

Snyder

Durán³

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The VIC model has been used to support assessments of the impact of climate change in many river basins in the western United States, including California's Central Valley (Van Rheenan et al, 2004;Maurer et al, 2007b;Anderson et al, 2008;Reclamation, 2008), the Colorado River Basin (C04, CL07) and the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (Payne et al, 2004). VIC is considered well adapted to application to the UCRB because it allows for a relatively detailed representation of the land surface, considering both the grid scale and sub-grid variability, and because it has physically based models of snow dynamics and evapotranspiration.…”

Section: Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Harding

Wood

Prairie

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30 % to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately 25 to 35 % of the ensemble of runs, by 2099 and 2039, respectively, result in no change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions pathways. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another) vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions pathways. Even by the end of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than changes in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few climate scenarios are unacceptably influenced by the choice of projections.

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“…Methane is a concern for the future because large amounts of methane are stored in the ocean and in permafrost. Scientists believe that thawing the permafrost and warming the oceans might release this stored NH 4 and cause a rapid temperature increase. Nitrous oxide is used as an aerosol propellant, anesthetic, and an oxidizer in rockets and engine fuel.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, climate scientists are projecting more bimodal precipitation in California, with more precipitation in the spring and fall and less in the winter. However, California depends on water storage in the mountain snowpack, and higher snow lines in the mountains, especially in the north where the mountains are shorter, will have less snowpack storage and will result in less water delivery to agricultural land in the summer [4]. Snowpack storage will affect the collection and distribution of irrigation water, but precipitation timing will also affect rainfall damage to crops in the spring and fall as well as changes in fog formation due to winters with higher temperatures and less rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Water Use in Horticulture

Snyder

2017

Horticulturae

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Abstract:The evidence for anthropogenic global climate change is strong, and the projected climate changes could greatly impact horticultural production. For horticulture, two of the biggest concerns are related to the scarcity of water for crop production and the potential for increased evapotranspiration (ET). While ET is known to increase with air temperature, it is also known to decrease with increasing humidity and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Considering all of these factors and a plausible climate projection, this paper demonstrates that ET may increase or decrease depending on the magnitude of atmospheric changes including wind speed. On the other hand, the evidence is still strong that water resources will become less reliable in many regions where horticultural crops are grown.

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Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California’s water resources

Cited by 84 publications

References 24 publications

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Climate Change Impacts on Water Use in Horticulture

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