Projected changes in heatwaves and its impact on human discomfort over India due to global warming under the CORDEX-CORE framework

Abstract

Due to climate change, rapid warming and its further intensification over different parts of the globe have been recently reported. This has a direct impact on human health, agriculture, water availability, power generation, various ecosystems, and socioeconomic conditions of the exposed population. The current study thus investigates the frequency and duration of heatwaves, human discomfort, and exposure of the human population to these extremes using the high-resolution regional climate model experiments under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) over India. We find that more than 90% of India will be exposed to uncomfortable warm nights by the end of the 21st century with the highest rise over western India, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Uttar Pradesh (UP), Punjab, and the Haryana region. States like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, eastern parts of MP and UP, and some parts of J&K will be the worst hit by the intense and frequent heatwaves and human discomfort followed by the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains under RCP8.5. Strict enforcement of the stringent policies on stabilization of population growth, improvement of local adaptive capacities, and economic status of the vulnerable population along with enforcing effective measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are important to reduce human exposure to future heat stress. We demonstrate that a proper mitigation-based development (RCP2.6) instead of a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) may help to reduce 50–200 heatwave days, 3–10 heatwave spells, and 10–35% warm nights over the Indian region. Consequently, this can avoid the exposure of 135–143 million population to severe discomfort due to extreme heat conditions by the end of the 21st century.

Content Analysis of International News About the Heat Waves in India

“…Singh (2023) highlights the importance of urban policies that consider the impact of heat waves on public health. An increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, which can lead to severe health consequences, including increased mortality and the incidence of heat-related illnesses (Maharana et al, 2024).…”

“…The excerpt reinforces the authors' analysis by linking the intensification of heat waves to the human-caused climate crisis. Maharana et al (2024) project an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves in India, which could lead to severe health consequences, including increased mortality and incidence of heat-related illnesses. "A study found that heat waves have killed more than 24000 people in the country since 1992."…”