Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d'Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d'Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period . Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km 2 to 134,960 km 2 depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d'Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country's economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.