Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf

Abstract

1. Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. 2. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4°C by 2098. 3. For each species, Generalized Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. 4. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet Mullus surmuletus L., Dover sole Solea solea L., John dory Zeus faber L. and lemon sole Microstomus kitt L. and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L., anglerfish Lophius piscatorius L. and megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L. European plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, with implications for decisions on target fishing mortality rates, fishing effort and allowable catches. Increasingly flexible This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Warming Alters the Relationship Between Benthic Cover and Herbivores on Hawaiian Reefs

“…Due to anthropogenic increases in CO 2 , the ocean is undergoing rapid changes resulting in increasing sea surface temperature among other stressors (Pörtner et al, 2019). Variations in temperature strongly impact fish biology through influencing growth, reproduction, and metabolism (Pörtner, 2002) where climate projections show species-specific increases and decreases in fish abundance (Wernberg et al, 2013(Wernberg et al, , 2016Maltby et al, 2020). In Hawai'i, increasing sea surface temperature has varying effects, where fish biomass increased for detritivores but decreased for browsers (Heenan et al, 2016).…”

Evidence of stock connectivity, hybridization and misidentification in white anglerfish support the need of a genetics-informed fisheries management framework

“…; Ofstad et al, 2013). This overlap in space, depth and time could have even been increased by recent changes of geographical and bathymetric distributions of both species, potentially as consequence of climate change (Maltby et al, 2020). According to mitochondrial DNA, which is maternally inherited in most animals (Moritz et al, 1987), we found that most hybrids (27 out of 30) resulted from a black anglerfish mother and a white anglerfish father.…”

“…There is also overlap in both species´ bathymetric distribution (20-1000m and 100-500m depth respectively for white and black anglerfish) (Azevedo, 1995;Caruso, 1986;García-Rodríguez, Pereda, Landa, & Esteban, 2005;Quincoces, Santurtún, & Lucio, 1998), and in spawning periods, both spawning in winter and spring (Ofstad, Angus, time could have even been increased by recent changes of geographical and bathymetric distributions of both species, potentially as a consequence of climate change (Maltby, Rutterford, Tinker, Genner, & Simpson, 2020). According to mitochondrial DNA, which is maternally inherited in most animals (Moritz, Dowling, & Brown, 1987), we found that most hybrids (27 out of 30) resulted from a black anglerfish mother and a white anglerfish father.…”

Trait gradients inform predictions of seagrass meadows changes to future warming

“…Global warming is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and functioning of major systems on Earth 1 , 2 . The impact of temperature increase has been measured over the past two decades 3 – 6 , but understanding how this physical forcing affects ecosystems is unclear, particularly in the sea 7 – 9 . This, however, is critical for predicting the consequences of global warming and identifying mitigation and restoration actions.…”