Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

doi:10.1289/ehp.1103456

Cited by 351 publications

(236 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Specific epidemiological reports on regional heat waves, such as in Chicago 1995 (Semenza et al 1996), France 2003 (Fouillet et al 2006), and China (Bai et al 2014), support this direct association between ambient temperature during acute heat waves and increased mortality. In the United States, an estimated 31% of 2000 weatherrelated deaths per year between 2006 and 2010 were attributed to heat exposure (Berko et al 2014), and future increases are expected because of a combination of higher global temperatures, more severe weather events (Huang et al 2011), and increasing urbanization (Gabriel and Endlicher 2011). The impact of temperature fluctuations on morbidity is less clear, with a recent epidemiological meta-analysis reporting a 3.2% increase in respiratory morbidity with 1°C increase on hot days, but no association with cardiovascular morbidity (Turner et al 2012).…”

Section: Heat Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal stress, human performance, and physical employment standards

Cheung

Lee

Oksa

2016

Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metab.

114

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Many physically demanding occupations in both developed and developing economies involve exposure to extreme thermal environments that can affect work capacity and ultimately health. Thermal extremes may be present in either an outdoor or an indoor work environment, and can be due to a combination of the natural or artificial ambient environment, the rate of metabolic heat generation from physical work, processes specific to the workplace (e.g., steel manufacturing), or through the requirement for protective clothing impairing heat dissipation. Together, thermal exposure can elicit acute impairment of work capacity and also chronic effects on health, greatly contributing to worker health risk and reduced productivity. Surprisingly, in most occupations even in developed economies, there are rarely any standards regarding enforced heat or cold safety for workers. Furthermore, specific physical employment standards or accommodations for thermal stressors are rare, with workers commonly tested under near-perfect conditions. This review surveys the major occupational impact of thermal extremes and existing employment standards, proposing guidelines for improvement and areas for future research.Key words: Heat stress, cold stress, occupational physiology, testing, work.Résumé : Plusieurs emplois physiquement exigeants dans les économies développées et en émergence s'exercent dans des milieux thermiques extrêmes qui peuvent affecter la capacité de travail et, en fin de compte, la santé. Ces milieux de condition thermique extrême se retrouvent dans des environnements de travail intérieur ou extérieur et peuvent découler d'une combinaison d'un milieu ambiant naturel ou artificiel, de la production de chaleur métabolique due au travail physique, des procédés spécifiques au milieu de travail (p. ex. fabrication de l'acier) ou du port obligatoire d'un équipement de protection s'opposant à la dissipation de la chaleur. Globalement, l'exposition à la chaleur peut diminuer ponctuellement la capacité de travail et générer des effets chroniques sur la santé, augmentant ainsi le risque de maladie chez le travailleur et la diminution de la productivité. Étonnamment, dans la plupart des emplois même dans les économies développées, il y a rarement, à propos du froid et de la chaleur, des normes de sécurité ou des règlements en vigueur à l'intention des travailleurs. De plus, rares sont les normes spécifiques aux tâches physiques ou les accommodations aux agents de stress thermique et les travailleurs sont généralement évalués dans des conditions presque parfaites. Cette analyse documentaire sonde les effets principaux des agents thermiques extrêmes sur les tâches physiques, fait le bilan des normes en vigueur en matière d'emploi, suggère des lignes directrices et des pistes pour des études ultérieures. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : stress thermique, stress dû au froid, physiologie du travail, évaluation, travail.

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Section: Heat Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal stress, human performance, and physical employment standards

Cheung

Lee

Oksa

2016

Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metab.

114

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“…The public health risks of extreme temperature days have long been recognized and, tragically, repeatedly demonstrated. As such, the future risk of climate-driven changes in the number and intensity of these days has been a topic of focused research for more than a decade (e.g., Kalkstein and Greene 1997;McGeehin and Mirabelli 2001;Basu and Samet 2002;Medina-Ramon and Schwartz 2007;Kinney et al 2008;Bell 2009, 2011;Huang et al 2011;Sheridan et al 2012;Zanobetti et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States

et al. 2014

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This paper applies city-specific mortality relationships for extremely hot and cold temperatures for 33 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States to develop mortality projections for historical and potential future climates. These projections, which cover roughly 100 million of 310 million U.S. residents in 2010, highlight a potential change in health risks from uncontrolled climate change and the potential benefits of a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy. Our analysis reveals that projected mortality from extremely hot and cold days combined increases significantly over the 21st century because of the overwhelming increase in extremely hot days. We also find that the evaluated GHG mitigation policy could substantially reduce this risk. These results become more pronounced when accounting for projected population changes. These results challenge arguments that there could be a mortality benefit attributable to changes in extreme temperatures from future warming. This finding of a net increase in mortality also holds in an analog city sensitivity analysis that incorporates a strong adaptation assumption. While our results do not address all sources of uncertainty, their scale and scope highlight one component of the potential health risks of unmitigated climate change impacts on extreme temperatures and draw attention to the need to continue to refine analytical tools and methods for this type of analysis.

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“…1,2 Epidemiological studies have shown that ambient temperature has short-term effect on overall mortality, with a generally U-shaped relationship because of the increased risks in cold and hot weather. 3,4 Extended periods of extreme temperatures, known as cold spells and heat waves, have also been associated with peaks in mortality.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Years of Life Lost for Cardiovascular Deaths: A Time Series Study in Brisbane, Australia

Huang

Barnett²,

Wang³

et al. 2012

Circ: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes

Self Cite

110

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Background— Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly people. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results— The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia, between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag nonlinear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate whether there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure–response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24°C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked 2 days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions— Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

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Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Cited by 351 publications

References 76 publications

Thermal stress, human performance, and physical employment standards

Thermal stress, human performance, and physical employment standards

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Years of Life Lost for Cardiovascular Deaths: A Time Series Study in Brisbane, Australia

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