Projections of Temperature Changes in Poland

Szwed, Małgorzata

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_21

Cited by 3 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In this study, the annual precipitation totals are projected to increase by 2–6% under SSP1–2.6 scenarios and 4–7.5% under SSP5–8.5. The previous studies projected that the precipitation will increase by 5–16% for Poland under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP5-8.5 6 , 10 – 13 . The differences between the present study results and previous studies for precipitation are partly related to the selection of GCM models, future scenarios, bias-correction methods, and time horizon.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on a literature review, the existing studies presenting projections of future climate in Poland 6 , 10 , 12 , 55 are focused on main climate variables and from the CMIP5 simulation. However, to date, there is no study investigating the impact of climate change in Poland through the CMIP6 models and projecting their extreme values for the future period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The projected estimations showed that the temperature for study area will rise by 1–1.5 °C in the near-future period and by 1.8–3.7 °C in the far-future in relation to mean from the reference period. Szwed 10 concluded that the average annual temperature would increase in the future for Poland. It is projected that, in the near future (2021–2050), the temperature increase will be 1 °C for RCP4.5 and 1.5 °C for the RCP8.5.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, previous studies have projected future climate conditions in Poland under climate scenarios from CMIP5. In general, it is projected that, by the end of the twenty-first century, air temperature in Poland will increase by 1–5 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 10 , 11 . Also, the precipitation totals will increase for most stations in Poland for the future period from CMIP5 simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, the precipitation totals will increase for most stations in Poland for the future period from CMIP5 simulations. It is expected that precipitation in Poland will increase by 5% (minimum), and 16% (maximum) under RCP4.5 and RCP5–8.5 scenarios 6 , 10 – 13 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Ghazi,

Przybylak,

Pospieszyńska

2023

Sci Rep

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Climate change is exacerbating the risk of the occurrence of extreme weather. This study has projected the change in mean and extreme climate conditions in Central Poland during near-future (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), and far-future (2076–2100) periods under two climate-change scenarios in six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that, compared to the historical reference period (1990–2014), Central Poland will experience an increase in temperature and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century. It is expected that the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation totals will increase by 1–4.8 °C and 2–7.5%, respectively. Furthermore, it is projected that the average number of hot, very hot days and extremely hot days (Tmax > 25 °C, > 30 °C, and > 35 °C), tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C), and extremely high daily precipitation (> 10 mm, > 20 mm and > 30 mm) will also increase, while the average number of slight frost days (Tmin < 0 °C), and frost and severe frost days (Tmax < 0 °C, Tmax < − 10 °C) will decline on average by the end of the twenty-first century. Therefore, it is essential for policymakers to take some appropriate measurements and strategies in advance to strengthen resilience to extreme climate events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Ghazi,

Przybylak,

Pospieszyńska

2023

Sci Rep

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Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland

Pińskwar,

Choryński,

Graczyk

2024

Reg Environ Change

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The aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.

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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Snowfall Conditions in Poland Based on the Snow Fraction Sensitivity Index

Somorowska

2024

Resources

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This study focuses on temperature and snowfall conditions in Poland, both of which were analyzed from 1981 to 2020. A 40-year record of daily snow fraction time series values was reconstructed using a unique and global multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) product, which provided a spatially and temporally consistent reference for the assessment of meteorological conditions. The average states and trends in snow fraction and temperature were analyzed across several years, focusing on the 6-month cold season (November–April). The impact of temperature on the snow fraction pattern was assessed by introducing a snow fraction sensitivity index. To predict short-term changes in snow conditions, a proxy model was established; it incorporated historical trends in the snow fraction as well as its mean state. This study provides clear evidence that the snow fraction is principally controlled by increases in temperature. A warming climate will thus cause a decline in the snow fraction, as we observed in vast lowland areas. Given the ongoing global warming, by the 2050s, snow-dominated areas may go from covering 86% to only 30% of the country’s surface; they will be converted into transient rain–snow areas. Our results demonstrate that a decline in snow water resources has already occurred, and these resources are expected to diminish further in the near future. New insights into the sensitivity of the snow fraction to climate warming will expand our collective knowledge of the magnitude and spatial extent of snow degradation. Such widespread changes have implications for the timing and availability of soil and groundwater resources as well as the timing and likelihood of floods and droughts. Thus, these findings will provide valuable information that can inform environmental managers of the importance of changing snowfall conditions, guiding them to include this aspect in future climate adaptation strategies.

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Projections of Temperature Changes in Poland

Cited by 3 publications

References 10 publications

Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Snowfall Conditions in Poland Based on the Snow Fraction Sensitivity Index

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