Proliferation concerns in the Russian closed nuclear weapons complex cities : a study of regional migration behavior.

Abstract

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the legacy of the USSR weapons complex with an estimated 50 nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons cities containing facilities responsible for research, production, maintenance, and destruction of the weapons stockpile. The Russian Federation acquired ten such previously secret, closed nuclear weapons complex cities. Unfortunately, a lack of government funding to support these facilities resulted in non-payment of salaries to employees and even plant closures, which led to an international fear of weapons material and knowledge proliferation.This dissertation analyzes migration in 33 regions of the Russian Federation, six of which contain the ten closed nuclear weapons complex cities. This study finds that the presence of a closed nuclear city does not significantly influence migration. However, the factors that do influence migration are statistically different in regions containing closed nuclear cities compared to regions without closed nuclear cities. Further, these results show that the net rate of migration has changed across the years since the break up of the Soviet Union, and that the push and pull factors for migration have changed across time. Specifically, personal and residential factors had a significant impact on migration immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but economic infrastructure and societal factors became significant in later years. Two significant policy conclusions are derived from this research. First, higher levels of income are found to increase outmigration from regions, implying that programs designed to prevent migration by increasing incomes for closed city residents may be counter-productive. Second, this study finds that programs designed to increase capital and build infrastructure in the new Russian Federation will be more effective for employing scientists and engineers from the weapons complex, and consequently reduce the potential for emigration of potential Despite the political difficulties and rapidly slowing economy after the Soviet collapse, the Russian government managed to find resources to keep the large weapons complex operational. However, the situation was tenuous, to say the least. Payment of salaries to workers became erratic, long-standing research teams were dissolved, and many laboratories were closed. Anxiety and fear spread as the world became aware of the unemployment status of so many thousands of expert weapons scientists and engineers throughout the Newly Independent States (NIS) of the Former Soviet Union.To better understand this concern, it is necessary to understand the birth and growth of the Soviet military complex, specifically the cities and production facilities of the weapons complex. Ten Previously Closed Nuclear Weapons FacilitiesRussia's ten closed nuclear cities were created for the sole purpose of supporting nuclear weapons production and research, and to provide a livelihood for the families of facility employees. 8 Figure 1 below provides a map of the te...