Propagation dynamics for an epidemic patch model with variable incubation period

Abstract

We study an epidemic patch model that describes the disease spread in population with variable latency due to the differences in immunologic tolerance between individuals. We focus on whether the disease can spread in space that leads to the emergence of epidemic wave, that is the travelling wave solution with constant speed. We first establish some properties of the linearized wave profile equations, which are helpful in obtaining the priori estimates of travelling waves and wave speeds. Then, applying the truncation method and limiting arguments, we can obtain threshold propagation dynamics of the epidemic model. Our result gives a complete characterization of the existence, nonexistence and minimal wave speed of travelling waves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time to characterize the propagation dynamics of epidemic patch model with variable latency, which contributes to the understanding of the transmission phenomenon of disease.