Prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by economically developed countries

Abstract

The prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by economically developed countries (USA, EU, Norway, Canada, Japan and Australia) are studied. An analysis of the structure of energy and land use in these countries is carried out. Scenario estimates of the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the world’s leading countries have been developed. It is shown that the current rates of decarbonisation and development of the carbon capture and storage industry do not guarantee the achievement of climate neutrality by 2050, even in the world’s leading economies. A central challenge in achieving climate neutrality is the rapid and large-scale deployment of CCS in all its possible manifestations. All of the countries studied, except Japan, have their own capacity to store carbon for more than a hundred years. To achieve climate neutrality, the leading OECD countries will need to ensure the annual capture of at least 6 billion tons of CO2 by 2050, which is almost 25 times higher than their current capacities (operating, under construction and under design) Despite the fact that climate change occupies almost a leading place on the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from declared. It is no longer realistic to keep warming within 1.5°C, and at the current rate of decarbonization, even by world leaders, the defense of the second critical frontier in 2°C will soon be threatened.