Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

Southernmost records of Dromiciops gliroides: extending its distribution beyond the Valdivian rainforest

“…However, defining a distribution area could be challenging, as this inevitably depends on occurrence records and collecting methods, a requirement that could result in underestimations of the distribution areas due to lack of sampling effort and misconceptions about the species habits. Moreover, distribution limits dynamic boundaries that depend on resource availability and climate change (Anderson et al 2009;Riquelme et al 2018). This may be the case of Dromiciops gliroides (Thomas 1894, Microbiotheria), a relict marsupial that inhabits the temperate forests of Chile and Argentina in southern South America.…”

Disassembled Food Webs and Messy Projections: Modern Ungulate Communities in the Face of Unabating Human Population Growth

“…Even ecological baselines that once framed our knowledge of the recent past are often of little modern relevance (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2019). The huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), for instance, a cervid that Darwin observed on Patagonia's eastern Atlantic shore and which extended across the Andes to the Pacific, no longer exists across 99% of their range (Eisenberg and Redford, 1989;Diaz, 1993;Vila et al, 2006). Six of the seven species of wild equids are on the IUCN Red List as endangered.…”

Functional limb anatomy in a refugee species: The endangered Patagonian huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus)

“…Historic interpretations thus have fomented these persisting claims that huemul are mountain deer, with Andean mountains being their natural range, as evidenced by the current distribution: yet this is but a snapshot of the original natural distribution (Flueck & Smith‐Flueck, 2012). Significant impacts from these assertions, although never substantiated, are on conservation policies: extant huemul found in such environments are considered to have survived there because it is their most optimal habitat (Riquelme et al., 2018), and efforts thus concentrate on Andean mountains.…”

“…Recent authors (e.g. Eisenberg, 1987;Riquelme et al, 2018) used similar descriptions referring to early writings; moreover, government agencies responsible for conservation in Argentina currently describe huemul as deer adapted to mountains, having stocky bodies with short and strong limbs (APN, 2020; Biodiversity Information System of Argentina, 2020). Historic interpretations thus have fomented these persisting claims that huemul are mountain deer, with Andean mountains being their natural range, as evidenced by the current distribution: yet this is but a snapshot of the original natural distribution (Flueck & Smith-Flueck, 2012).Significant impacts from these assertions, although never substantiated, are on conservation policies: extant huemul found in such environments are considered to have survived there because it is their most optimal habitat (Riquelme et al, 2018), and efforts thus concentrate on Andean mountains.Current recovery efforts are distinctly based on assumptions that prevailing ecological interpretations of huemul are correct, despite a review showing that even the basic ecology is little known or unknown (Flueck & Smith-Flueck, 2006).…”

“…Recent authors (e.g. Eisenberg, 1987;Riquelme et al, 2018) used similar descriptions referring to early writings; moreover, government agencies responsible for conservation in Argentina currently describe huemul as deer adapted to mountains, having stocky bodies with short and strong limbs (APN, 2020; Biodiversity Information System of Argentina, 2020). Historic interpretations thus have fomented these persisting claims that huemul are mountain deer, with Andean mountains being their natural range, as evidenced by the current distribution: yet this is but a snapshot of the original natural distribution (Flueck & Smith-Flueck, 2012).…”