Public works programmes and agricultural risk: Evidence from India

Abstract

The agricultural sectors in many low‐ and middle‐income countries remain highly vulnerable to weather risk, a vulnerability that will only intensify under climate change. The globally trending public works programmes have the potential to impact weather‐related agricultural risk. I explore the impact of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) on weather‐related agricultural risk. My empirical strategy explores the staggered roll‐out of NREGA and random weather fluctuations. Using a nationwide panel of data, I find that NREGA makes crop yields more sensitive to low rainfall shocks. I posit that these results are consistent with a labour market channel, by which NREGA increases nonfarm labour supply in low rainfall years, and an income channel, by which NREGA leads to riskier agricultural practices. These results highlight the importance of understanding how social protection programmes shape agricultural risk.

Calamitous weather, yield risk and mitigation effect of harvest mechanisation: Evidence from China's winter wheat

“…Calamitous weather, such as excessive precipitation during the crop‐growing and harvest seasons, has drawn considerable interest in the literature under the backdrop of climate change. An increasing amount of evidence has shown that the increased frequency of calamitous weather exposes crop production to more severe risks than changes in mean climate, negatively affecting crop yields and food security (McCarl et al., 2008; Taraz, 2023; Urban et al., 2015). Not only can calamitous weather during the growing season affect crop yields, but those during the harvest season can also adversely affect crop yields, especially when calamitous weather prevents timely harvest (Amonoo, 2013; Gobin, 2018).…”

“…exposes crop production to more severe risks than changes in mean climate, negatively affecting crop yields and food security (McCarl et al, 2008;Taraz, 2023;Urban et al, 2015). Not only can calamitous weather during the growing season affect crop yields, but those during the harvest season can also adversely affect crop yields, especially when calamitous weather prevents timely harvest (Amonoo, 2013;Gobin, 2018).…”