Qualitative modeling for representing the social-ecological system of the Groix–Belle-île offshore wind farm project

Abstract

The increasing numbers of offshore wind farm (OWF) projects question the impacts of such infrastructures on the social-ecological system (SES) in which they are to be constructed. Some answers can be given using qualitative modeling and loop analysis. We used participatory modeling to co-construct a qualitative model of the socio-ecosystem together with stakeholders of the APPEAL project. The goal of the project was to evaluate the potential impacts of the pilot OWF in the Groix–Belle-île region. Then, loop analysis was used to study the characteristics of the SES created by the setting-up of an OWF. We focused on the impacts of SES variables on each other by evaluating their effects through direct and indirect pathways. Pleasure boating appeared as one of the SES components prone to suffer from the OWF construction, whereas industrial tourism was likely to benefit from it. This article presents the methodology used to obtain such results, for it to be used in spatial planning or in citizen-science processes.