Qualitative Risk Analysis Based on Avalanche Scenarios in Palandöken Ski Center, Erzurum (NE Turkey)

Abstract

The chapter proposes a method for regional-scale qualitative risk assessment. To estimate critical snow heights, information was gathered from residents, documents, and back calculations of avalanche simulations based on well-known avalanche events. The elements at risk were extracted from existing digital cadastral databases, and vulnerabilities were identified. The study found that the provincial forest area had the highest annual probability of property loss. The chapter presents a model that offers an effective means of determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. Additionally, various potential avalanche scenarios are presented to provide an understanding of the potential threats specific to this avalanche-prone area. The resulting map provides reliable and easily understandable information, highlighting areas where avalanches pose a significant risk at the regional level, as well as areas where new avalanche paths may develop under favorable conditions within the defined region.