Quantification of Climate Warming and Crop Management Impacts on Cotton Phenology

Abstract

Understanding the impact of the warming trend on phenological stages and phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in central and lower Punjab, Pakistan, may assist in optimizing crop management practices to enhance production. This study determined the influence of the thermal trend on cotton phenology from 1980–2015 in 15 selected locations. The results demonstrated that observed phenological stages including sowing (S), emergence (E), anthesis (A) and physiological maturity (M) occurred earlier by, on average, 5.35, 5.08, 2.87 and 1.12 days decade−1, respectively. Phenological phases, sowing anthesis (S-A), anthesis to maturity (A-M) and sowing to maturity (S-M) were reduced by, on average, 2.45, 1.76 and 4.23 days decade−1, respectively. Observed sowing, emergence, anthesis and maturity were negatively correlated with air temperature by, on average, −2.03, −1.93, −1.09 and −0.42 days °C−1, respectively. Observed sowing-anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing-maturity were also negatively correlated with temperature by, on average, −0.94, −0.67 and −1.61 days °C−1, respectively. Applying the cropping system model CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model using a standard variety in all locations indicated that the model-predicted phenology accelerated more due to warming trends than field-observed phenology. However, 30.21% of the harmful influence of the thermal trend was compensated as a result of introducing new cotton cultivars with higher growing degree day (thermal time) requirements. Therefore, new cotton cultivars which have higher thermal times and are high temperature tolerant should be evolved.

<b>Cotton productivity enhanced through transplanting and early sowing

“…The development of buds, flowers, and bolls require differential needs for their development, and thereby are sensitive to external environments (Tariq et al, 2017;Ahmad et al, 2017). The production of greater dry matter of reproductive parts compared to vegetative parts results in higher yields.…”

“…Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is an important crop world-wide (Buttar et al, 2013;Jalota et al, 2008;Mayee, Monga, Dhillon, Nehra, & Pundhir, 2008;Ahmad et al, 2017). In the world, Pakistan ranks as the fourth-largest cotton producer in terms of area and production after China, India and USA, and third-largest consumer after China and India.…”

“…Thereby, early planting during March may reduce the chance of adverse effects of early and mid-season high temperatures (Pettigrew, 2002;Khan, Khaliq, & Ahmad, 2004;Ali et al, 2009;Usman et al, 2009;Wajid et al, 2010;Ali, Hameed, Ahmad, Shahzad, & Sarwar, 2014a;Ali et al, 2014b). The planting of cotton during high temperatures increases the risk of exposing the cotton seedlings to heat stress, which ultimately results in poor plant population (Ali et al, 2010;2011;Tariq et al, 2017;Ahmad et al, 2017). In the past five years, cotton growers have shifted to the early planting of cotton to avoid the risk of heat stress on the emergence of seedlings during May and maintain optimum plant population.…”

Resource Use Efficiencies of C3 and C4 Cereals under Split Nitrogen Regimes

“…The historical area and production of first-, second-, and third-order cereals in Pakistan is presented in Figure 1 [6]. Currently, productivity and resource use efficiency of C 3 winter and C 4 summer cereals are low in Pakistan compared to other countries in the region [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17], indicating a substantial potential to increase resource use efficiencies [6, [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. Table 1.…”

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

“…期的影响 (Ahmad et al, 2016;Abbas et al, 2017;Ahmad S, Abbas Q et al, 2017 (Lobell et al, 2005;Verón et al, 2015) Abstract: Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops.…”