2022
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2205.02838
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Quantifying rare events in spotting: How far do wildfires spread?

Abstract: Spotting refers to the transport of burning pieces of firebrand by wind which, at the time of landing, may ignite new fires beyond the direct ignition zone of the main fire. Spot fires that occur far from the original burn unit are rare but have consequential ramifications since their prediction and control remains challenging. To facilitate their prediction, we examine three methods for quantifying the landing distribution of firebrands: crude Monte Carlo simulations, importance sampling, and large deviation … Show more

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