R & D project selection models: An assessment

Abstract

Abstract— The R&D project selection decision is described as a process by which an intermittent stream of changes are made to lists of currently active and proposed projects. It includes generating alternatives, determining when a decision is required, collecting data, specifying constraints and criteria, and recycling. The decision is viewed as imbedded within a hierarchical, diffuse budgeting and planning process. Process characteristics such as multiple criteria whose relative importance varies over time, inherent uncertainty, and parameter interrelationships result in a highly complex decision problem. The existing normative R&D benefit measurement and project selection literature is assessed and the limitations inherent in the proposed models are determined. A number of research opportunities are identified for both methodological and empirical studies.

Contemporary methods for evaluating complex project proposals

“…During field interviews, managers confirm the changing paradigm of project evaluation that has been reported in the literature for some time (Baker 2012;Kavadias and Loch 2004;Kumar 2006;Shakhsi-Niaei et al 2011). That is, not too long ago, in the 1990s and before, rational evaluation processes prevailed by and large for supporting project selections.…”

“…We have to understand and examine the whole spectrum of costs, risks, and benefits as part of the evaluation process, far beyond conventional project economics. This requires a comprehensive approach with sophisticated leadership, integrating organizational resources and facilitating a shared vision of risks across organizational borders, time, and space (Baker 2012;Bstieler 2005;Cicmil et al 2006). Currently, we are quite efficient on the analytical side of project evaluation/selection.…”

Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects

“…These projects involve many characteristics -such as uncertainties and interdependent resource constraints -that are potentially amenable to analysis by OR techniques. Indeed, there exists a variety of related methods, ranging from scoring methods such as value trees (e.g., Keeney and Raiffa, 1976) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP; Saaty 1980) to optimization models (see, e.g., Luenberger 1998, p. 106, Gear et al 1971, Baker 1974, Baker and Freeland 1975, Jackson 1983, Fox et al 1984, Schmidt and Freeland 1992, Ghasemzadeh et al 1999 and dynamic programming methods such as decision trees and real options (Hespos and Strassmann 1965, Dixit and Pindyck 1994, Trigeorgis 1996. Yet, despite this plethora of methodological approaches, the industrial uptake of these methods has remained limited (see, e.g., Liberatore and Titus 1983), possibly due to the difficulties of capturing the full range of phenomena that are relevant to the problem of selecting and managing R&D projects.…”

“…Extensive reviews on these methods are given by Gear et al (1971), Augood (1973), Baker (1974), Gear (1974), Baker 26/11/2003 16:06 3 and Freeland (1975), Jackson (1983, Booker and Bryson (1985), Souder and Mandakovic (1986), Weber et al (1990), Martino (1995), and Henriksen and Traynor (1999.…”

Adequação estratégica de projetos: o caso da Eletronuclear

“…A referida seleção representaria parte do processo de adequação estratégica e estaria fortemente associada à pesquisa e ao desenvolvimento (Baker, 1974;Bard e Kaufmann, 1988;Cooper et al, 1998;Englund e Graham, 1999). Algumas aplicações do processo de "seleção estratégica dos projetos" ocorreriam, por exemplo, por meio da matriz de classificação de benefícios dos projetos e da qualidade dos recursos (Kerzner, 2005) ou pela técnica do AHP -Analytical hierarchy process (Archer e Ghasemzadeh, 2000;Cooper et al, 1998;Saaty, 1994).…”