Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Afifi, Tamer; Liwenga, Emma T.; Kwezi, Lukas

doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.826128

Cited by 104 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Inter-provincial migration of households due to temperature anomalies was observed in Indonesia [68] and, for male migrants, in the case of Pakistan [65]. Furthermore, in a study concerning the US [69], as well as in other studies at the micro-level, climate shocks, as captured by measures of temperature, humidity, and wind, have been shown to result in short-distance internal migration [52,60,70,71].…”

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Most of the literature discussing internal migration highlights that a reduction in precipitations may cause an increase in urban migration, for example in sub-Saharan Africa [57], or, more generally, an increase in internal migration, as in the cases of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Tanzania, respectively analyzed by [58][59][60]. As underlined by [61], the most frequent migration pattern is that occurring between rural areas.…”

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Climate Shocks and Internal Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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“…In this special issue, Afifi, Liwenga, and Kwezi (2013) provide an in-depth exploration of the nature of rainfallinduced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania using the same sources of data used by this research. The authors identify a positive relationship between rainfall shortage and out-migration in the district with rainfall variability found to affect human mobility through livelihood/food insecurity.…”

Section: Livelihoods and Migration In The Kilimanjaro Region Of Tanzaniamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors identify a positive relationship between rainfall shortage and out-migration in the district with rainfall variability found to affect human mobility through livelihood/food insecurity. For a more in-depth discussion of the causal links at play between rainfall variability and human migration and a presentation of empirical data from the case study region, see Afifi, Liwenga, and Kwezi (2013).…”

Section: Livelihoods and Migration In The Kilimanjaro Region Of Tanzaniamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the household level, the foremost component is the 'vulnerability assessment', from which a household determines their resilience at time t. On the basis of the interdependencies identified by Afifi, Liwenga, and Kwezi (2013) as at play in the case study region, this assessment is framed by the degree of structural/institutional livelihood and food security their community is experiencing, their own characteristics (members, economically active members, dependency ratio and migration experience), and their income and food production (determined by attributes such as livestock, land, savings and the economic and migration activities of members). Regardless of the degree of resilience a household identifies, migration represents an opportunity to increase household livelihood and food security.…”

Section: Conceptual Framingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania

Smith

2014

Climate and Development

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This paper describes the conceptual and practical development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration ModelTanzania (RABMM-T). Drawing upon the literature on the process of developing and parameterizing a social simulation in the absence of spatio-temporal data, the paper outlines the translation of the conceptual framework into a working agent-based model. The possible impact of a change in local rainfall variability and mean upon household income, food production, and therefore the resilience and migration of members, is simulated to permit consideration of the possible impact of the artificial scenarios tested. In addition to the influence of changing rainfall, other non-rainfall scenarios are tested to explore the scale of the changes simulated. It is proposed that while a relatively clear impact of rainfall scenarios upon household resilience is simulated, the impact upon migration of household members is generally less clear. Furthermore, demographic and societal changes to the model are also seen to clearly contribute to the simulation outputs generated. The paper concludes that RABMM-T offers the first step in developing a potentially valuable resource for producing comparable migration forecasts that consider a range of contributory mechanisms. However, careful parameterization is required to ensure the quality and value of model outputs.

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Sub‐seasonal teleconnections between convection over the Indian Ocean, the East African long rains and tropical Pacific surface temperatures

Vigaud

Lyon

Giannini

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Since 1999, the increased frequency of dry conditions over East Africa, particularly during the March–May (MAM) season, has heightened concerns in a region already highly insecure about food. The underlying mechanisms, however, are still not yet fully understood. This article analyses a proxy for daily convection variations over a large region encompassing East Africa and the whole Indian Ocean basin by applying a cluster analysis to more than 30 years of daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Focusing on the MAM season to investigate relationships with East African long rains, four recurrent convection regimes associated with wet/dry conditions in East Africa are identified. Interestingly, all four regimes are related to western/central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and rainfall. Wet regimes are associated with cool and dry/warm and wet conditions over the Maritime Continent (MC)/tropical Pacific east of the date line. Dry regimes exhibit opposite SST/rainfall dipole patterns in the Pacific compared to wet regimes, with the Indian Ocean found to modulate impacts on East African rainfall. Significant relationships between off‐equatorial warming in the west Pacific and a more frequent dry regime in May since 1998–1999 suggest an earlier onset of the monsoon and Somali jet, consistent with the recent abrupt shift observed in East African long rains and their modulation at multi‐decadal time scales of the Pacific.

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Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Cited by 104 publications

References 4 publications

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania

Sub‐seasonal teleconnections between convection over the Indian Ocean, the East African long rains and tropical Pacific surface temperatures

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