Rainfall Runoff Balance Enhanced Model Applied to Tropical Hydrology

Júnior, Arisvaldo Vieira Méllo; Olivos, Lina Maria Osorio; Billerbeck, Camila; Marcellini, Silvana Susko; Vichete, William Dantas; Pasetti, Daniel Manabe; Silva, Ligia Monteiro da; Soares, Gabriel Anísio dos Santos; Tercini, João Rafael Bergamaschi

doi:10.3390/w14121958

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime has been presented by researchers as a useful technique for addressing the problem [17,18]. Reliable information on potential changes in future hydrological conditions requires knowledge of the influence of heterogeneity on the soilvegetation-atmospheric relationships [19]; equally, basic data related to climate, topography, and land cover and soil characteristics are necessary for the hydrological simulation of basins [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Hydroclimatic Changes on Water Security in the Cantareira Water Production System, Brazil

Tercini,

Mello Júnior

2023

Atmosphere

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The Cantareira Water Production System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous region in Brazil, is facing significant challenges due to hydroclimate change, thus threatening its water security. This research integrates data from climate models and field observations with hydrological modeling, aimed at quantifying trends in key variables of the hydrological cycle. The GFDL-CM4 climate model, the most suitable for the study area, was employed to generate runoff data under both current conditions and future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in the frequency of dry hydrological years. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Drought Magnitude (DM) confirm an increase in both the occurrence and duration of droughts in future scenarios. The runoff in all basins was reduced, causing a substantial decrease in minimum flows of 16.9%, medium flows of 11.8%, and high flows of 9.2% for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This research introduces an approach to hydroclimate impact assessment, combining rigorous data analysis with advanced modeling techniques. Our findings not only provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by the CWPS, but also offer critical quantitative insights essential for developing effective public policies and adaptive strategies for sustainable water resource management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Hydroclimatic Changes on Water Security in the Cantareira Water Production System, Brazil

Tercini,

Mello Júnior

2023

Atmosphere

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“…Evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime has been presented by researchers as useful techniques for addressing the problem [2,3]. Reliable information on potential changes to future hydrological conditions require knowledge of the influence of heterogeneity in soil-vegetation-atmospheric relationships [4], and basic data related to climate, topography, land cover and soil characteristics are necessary for the hydrological simulation of basins [5]. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water security of CWPS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Hydroclimatic Changes on Water Security in the Cantareira Water Production System, Brazil

Tercini,

Mello Júnior

2023

Preprint

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The Cantareira Water Producer System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous Brazilian region, Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), faces significant challenges due to climate change, threatening its water security. Climate change affects the hydrological cycle affecting water availability. The CWPS is vulnerable to periods of scarcity and instability due to increased climatic variability and increasing water consumption. Current water resource management systems do not consider the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to ensure water security in the future. This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the availability of CWPS using hydrological modeling approach with forecast precipitation data by CMIP6 and assessment of existing systems. The finds will provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by CWPS in the context of climate change, as well as support strategies and adaptive measures to ensure water security for MRSP.

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