Ranking Epilepsy Risk Factors Using Machine Learning

Abstract

BackgroundMachine learning methods to predict the risk of epilepsy, including vascular epilepsy, in oncohematological patients are currently considered promising. These methods are actively used in epileptology to predict pharmacoresistant epilepsy, surgical treatment outcomes, to determine the epileptogenic zone and functional neural systems in patients with epilepsy, as well as to develop new approaches to classification and perform other tasks. This paper presents the results of applying machine learning to analyzing data and developing models of epilepsy in vascular and oncohematological patients. MethodsWe analyzed the hospital database of the V.A. Almazov Scientific Research Center of the Ministry of Health of Russia. The study included 66723 treatment episodes of patients with vascular diseases (I10-I15,I61-I69,I20-I25) and 16383 episodes with malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, hematopoietic, and related tissues (C81-C96 according to ICD-10) for the period from 2010 to 2020. ResultsData analysis and model calculations indicate that the best result was shown by gradient boosting with mean accuracy cross-validation score = 0.96. f1-score = 98, weighted avg precision = 93, recall = 96, f1-score = 94. The highest correlation coefficient for G40 was achieved with fibrillation, hypertension, stenosis or occlusion of the precerebral arteries (0.16), cerebral sinus thrombosis (0.089), arterial hypertension (0.17), age (0.03), non-traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (0.07), atrial fibrillation (0.05), delta absolute neutrophil count (0.05), platelet count at discharge (0.04), transfusion volume for stem cell transplantation (0.023). ConclusionFrom the clinical point of view, the identified differences in the importance of predictors in a broader patient model are consistent with a practical algorithm for organic brain damage. Atrial fibrillation is one of the leading factors in the development of both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. At the same time, brain infarction can be accompanied both by the development of epileptic seizures in the acute period and by unprovoked epileptic seizures and development of epilepsy in the early recovery and in a longer period. In addition, microembolism of the left heart chambers can lead to multiple microfocal lesions of the brain, which is considered to be one of the pathogenetic aspects of epilepsy in elderly patients.