Rapid Evolution of a Cold Stress Cline in Mediterranean Fruit Fly During Northward Range Expansion

Papadogiorgou, Georgia D.; Moraiti, Cleopatra A.; Nestel, David; Terblanche, John S.; Verykouki, Eleni; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4213239

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Reports of base temperature in the literature vary depending on several factors, including study location and stage of the fruit fly development. Moreover, recent studies on thermal tolerance and critical minimum and maximum thermal limits [36][37][38] have shown that there can be high levels of adaptation and thermal acclimation in local medfly populations, affecting the survival of flies in cold conditions. In Israel the threshold for larval development for C. capitata, i.e.…”

Section: Minimum Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly

Szyniszewska,

Bieszczak,

Kozyra

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur in places previously considered unsuitable for year-round survival. We explore the expansion of the climatically suitable areas for a horticultural pest, the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly)Ceratitis capitata(Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe and California. We reviewed and refined a published CLIMEX model forC. capitata, taking into consideration new records in marginal locations, with a particular focus on Europe. To assess the model fit and to aid in interpreting the meaning of the new European distribution records, we used a time series climate dataset to explore the temporal patterns of climate suitability forC. capitatafrom the 1970 to 2019. At selected bellwether sites in Europe, we found statistically significant trends in increasing climate suitability, as well as a substantial northward expansion in the modelled potential range. In California, we also found a significant trend of northward and altitudinal expansion of areas suitable forC. capitataestablishment. These results provide further evidence of climate change’s impact on species distributions and the need for innovative responses to increased invasion threats.

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Section: Minimum Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%