2021
DOI: 10.26226/morressier.604907f51a80aac83ca25d9b
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Rare event simulation for non-Markovian repairable fault trees

Abstract: Dynamic fault trees (dft) are widely adopted in industry to assess the dependability of safety-critical equipment. Since many systems are too large to be studied numerically, dfts dependability is often analysed using Monte Carlo simulation. A bottleneck here is that many simulation samples are required in the case of rare events, e.g. in highly reliable systems where components fail seldomly. Rare event simulation (res) provides techniques to reduce the number of samples in the case of rare events. We present… Show more

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Cited by 5 publications
(29 citation statements)
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“…In fact, we propose several variants of this idea, where we also normalize the cut sets by their maximum weights, or prune them based on their cardinality or failure probability. Our experimental evaluation shows that our functions, tested on the standard hecs benchmark for fta for a fixed simulation time budget, can produce estimates as accurate as more involved approaches that consider the whole structure of the tree [3]. Moreover, the res algorithms deployed by our functions show the highest stability in our tests.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 83%
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“…In fact, we propose several variants of this idea, where we also normalize the cut sets by their maximum weights, or prune them based on their cardinality or failure probability. Our experimental evaluation shows that our functions, tested on the standard hecs benchmark for fta for a fixed simulation time budget, can produce estimates as accurate as more involved approaches that consider the whole structure of the tree [3]. Moreover, the res algorithms deployed by our functions show the highest stability in our tests.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 83%
“…weight) to more promising states in a trace. The main contribution of this paper is to assign to each fault tree an importance function that can be automatically derived from its structure, in a similar way to [3]. The goals is also to deploy functions with low computation overhead and low variability, so that the res algorithms implemented from them hare highly-performant.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…In this talk, she summarized the lessons learned from previous work [6] on integrating fault tree analysis with attack trees for quantitative analysis. She sketched the research landscape and future challenges for formal methods in the presence of machine learning that are partly addressed in her current work on rare-event simulation [1].…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%