Real‐Time Warning and Risk Assessment of Tailings Dam Disaster Status Based on Dynamic Hierarchy‐Grey Relation Analysis

Abstract

The consequences of tailings dam breaks are disastrous; although various factors can often result in tailings dam damage, the main cause is poor management. To reduce human supervision errors and ensure that real-time early warnings alerts are sent for any risks, 22 evaluation indexes that affect dam breaks were set up based on inherent and frequency risk. To efficiently predict an early dam break signal for a tailings dam, 12 key evaluation indexes of a dynamic early warning system were screened and a comprehensive consideration of the risk trend was undertaken. The current and future states of the 12 indexes were analyzed based on a borda count and dynamic analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods and early warning grades for tailings dam damage were evaluated using the dynamic grey relation analysis method. The dynamic AHP method, which avoids the tedious testing and risks of static early warning states, was compared to the traditional method. This research provides a useful basis upon which mining enterprises can select reasonable and effective prediction indexes for risk assessment, fully implement and promote intelligent management of major risks, and conduct accurate and authentic supervision at all levels.

Watch Out for the Tailings Pond, a Sharp Edge Hanging over Our Heads: Lessons Learned and Perceptions from the Brumadinho Tailings Dam Failure Disaster

“…Therefore, it is necessary to organize engineering researchers to evaluate the stability of the built tailings pond and complete the safety risk and ecological risk assessment of the tailings pond together with ecological researchers [110,111]. Comprehensively considering safety risks and ecological risks, priority treatment objects for the tailings pond treatment could be selected in order to improve the utilization efficiency of governance funds [112]. Some engineering measures to improve the stability of the tailing ponds are necessary, such as gentle slopes, norms regarding the maximum height of dams, drainage systems and simulation of their influence on the slope stability, mathematical simulations to evaluate the slope stability under different meteorological conditions, projects for closing the ponds, etc.…”

Attribute Reduction Method Based on Generalized Grey Relational Analysis and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory

“…In the grey system, information is partly known [45]. As a part of the grey system theory, GRA can effectively deal with the lack of theoretical uncertainty information [45], [58]. The basic idea of GRA is to evaluate the degree of correlation among different factors according to the similarity of geometric shapes of sequence curves [59].…”

Multisensor‐Weighted Fusion Algorithm Based on Improved AHP for Aircraft Fire Detection

“…In order to shorten the fusion time to some extent, the weight of each fusion variable in the probability assessment of fire event can be considered; then, the sensor data can be estimated. Among them, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is widely used in multivariable weight calculation and system state evaluation [12][13][14][15]. For example, Yang et al used fuzzy AHP and deviation maximization method to determine the subjective and objective weight of each index and evaluated the risk degree of voltage sag of each observation point by weighting the comprehensive weight and its pressure drop, so as to take corresponding measures timely [12].…”