Realistic Modeling and Simulation of Influenza Transmission Over an Urban Community

Abstract

Infectious diseases that are spread through human contact can progress very rapidly in a population. One of the key factors in the spreading of contagion, and a main concern in attempting to stop the spread of illness, is the particular configuration of links among individuals in local communities within the larger population. This study uses a detailed individual-based, three-partite model comprising about 245,000 individuals located in an urban area in the Northeastern United States. Interactions among individuals are divided into family, workplace and pastime (service places, shopping, etc.), each occurring during a separate time period (daytime, pastime, and nighttime). Thus, the network allows one to model the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transmission of communicable diseases and to capture the differences between various individuals' vulnerability to infection. We performed Monte-Carlo simulations of the spreading of influenza through this network. Simulation results correspond well to the reported epidemic information. Results also demonstrate a temporal and population threshold which if exceeded, result in the long-term spread of infection. We expect that the findings will offer a valuable platform to devise spatially and temporally oriented control and intervention strategies for communicable diseases.