Reasons for Some Countries Having More COVID-19 Cases Than Others: Evidence from 70 Most Affected Countries <i>sans</i> China

Abstract

A look into the country-level data on the number of COVID-19 positive cases reveals considerable cross-country variations in the number of officially confirmed COVID-19 positive cases. Consequently, there exists a research gap in the relevant field of research. This paper attempts to explain the variations in the number of officially confirmed COVID-19 positive cases across countries around the world and thus fills in the research gap. The study develops a unique dataset of 70 of the most COVID-19 affected countries and employs multiple regression techniques. The findings indicate that regional characteristics play an essential role. Percent of people living in the urban area, number of tests, air passenger transport (an indicator of population mobility) also come out as determinants with substantial influence. Besides, the impacts of trade relationships with China (a proxy for the degree of interaction with the country) and per capita health expenditure appears to be noteworthy. Differences in temperature are found to have no appreciable impact. Also, factors such as the relative importance of health in national policy, the quality of life, and the quality of governance fail to register any vital influence. The study does not find any evidence of endogeneity of the total number of tests conducted.