Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles

Pickler, Carolyne; Fausto, Edmundo Gurza; Beltrami, Hugo; Mareschal, Jean‐Claude; Suárez, Francisco; Chacon-Oecklers, Arlette; Blin, Nicole; Calderón, Maria Teresa Cortés; Montenegro, Álvaro; Harris, R. N.; Tassara, Andrés Ollero

doi:10.5194/cp-14-559-2018

Cited by 18 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…That is, it is an attempt to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the upper boundary condition. Ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) and ground heat flux histories (GHFHs) have been reconstructed from borehole temperature profile (BTP) measurements at regional and larger scales for decadal and millennial timescales (Barkaoui et al, 2013;Beck, 1977;Beltrami, 2001;Beltrami et al, 2006;Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004;Cermak, 1971;Chouinard and Mareschal, 2009;Davis et al, 2010;Demezhko and Gornostaeva, 2015;Harris and Chapman, 2001;Hartmann and Rath, 2005;Hopcroft et al, 2007;Huang et al, 2000;Jaume-Santero et al, 2016;Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986;Lane, 1923;Pickler et al, 2018;Roy et al, 2002;Vasseur et al, 1983). These reconstructions have provided independent records for the evaluation of the evolution of the climate system well before the existence of meteorological records.…”

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, borehole data are sparse, since the logs were usually recorded from holes of opportunity at mining exploration sites. As a result, the majority of profiles were measured in the Northern Hemisphere, although recent efforts have been taken to increase the sampling rate in South America (Pickler et al, 2018) and Australia (Suman et al, 2017). Despite this uneven sampling, the spatial distribution of borehole profiles has been able to represent the evolution of land surface conditions at global scales (Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004;Cuesta-Valero et al, 2020;Pollack and Smerdon, 2004).…”

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, the majority of profiles were measured in the Northern Hemisphere, although recent efforts have been taken to increase the sampling rate in South America (Pickler et al, 2018) and Australia (Suman et al, 2017). Despite this uneven sampling, the spatial distribution of borehole profiles has been able to represent the evolution of land surface conditions at global scales (Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004;Cuesta-Valero et al, 2020;Pollack and Smerdon, 2004). Another factor that reduces the number of borehole profiles suitable for climate analyses is the presence of nonclimatic signals in the measured profiles, mainly caused by groundwater flow and changes in the lithology of the subsurface.…”

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, all profiles are screened before the analysis in order to remove questionable logs. Despite all these limitations, the borehole methodology has been shown to be reliable based on observational analyses (Bense and Kooi, 2004;Chouinard and Mareschal, 2007;Pollack and Smerdon, 2004;Verdoya et al, 2007) and pseudoproxy experiments (García Molinos et al, 2016;.…”

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?

Schuckmann

Cheng

Palmer

et al. 2020

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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239

237

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Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

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Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?

Schuckmann

Cheng

Palmer

et al. 2020

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

Self Cite

239

237

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ground Surface Temperature Histories (GSTHs) and Ground Heat Flux Histories (GHFHs) have been reconstructed from borehole temperature profile (BTP) measurements at regional and larger scales for decadal and millennial time-scales. ( Barkaoui et al, 2013;Beck, 1977;Beltrami, 2001;Beltrami et al, 2006;Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004;Cermak, 1971;Chouinard and Mareschal, 2009;Davis et al, 2010;Demezhko and Gornostaeva, 2015;Harris and Chapman, 2001;Hartmann and Rath, 2005;Hopcroft et al, 2007;Huang et al, 2000;Jaume-Santero et al, 2016;Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986;LANE, 1923;Pickler et al, 2018; https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-255 Roy et al, 2002;Vasseur et al, 1983). These reconstructions have provided independent records for the evaluation of the evolution of the climate system well before the existence of meteorological records.…”

Section: Borehole Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team

Schuckmann¹,

Cheng²,

Palmer³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory, and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the past 58 years, with a total heat gain of 393 &pm; 40 ZJ, which is equivalent to a heating rate of 0.42 &pm; 0.04 W m−2. The majority of the heat gain (89 %) takes place in the global ocean (0–700 m: 53 %; 700–2000 m: 28 %; > 2000 m: 8 %), while it amounts to 6 % for the land heat gain, to 4 % available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and to 1 % for atmospheric warming. These new estimates indicate a larger contribution of land and ice heat gain (10 % in total) compared to previous estimates (7 %). There is a regime shift of the Earth heat inventory over the past 2 decades, which appears to be predominantly driven by heat sequestration into the deeper layers of the global ocean, and a doubling of heat gain in the atmosphere. However, a major challenge is to reduce uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory, which can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, as well as to establish an international framework for concerted multi-disciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory. Earth heat inventory is published at DKRZ (https://www.dkrz.de/) under the doi: https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

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