Recent observations of high mass density polar mesospheric clouds: A link to space traffic?

Siskind, David E.; Stevens, M. H.; Hervig, Mark E.; Randall, C. E.

doi:10.1002/grl.50540

Cited by 29 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…[] and Siskind et al . [] also found the lack of a solar cycle response in PMC observations during the recent decade. The role of solar cycle effects in PMCs was questioned by Lübken et al .…”

Section: Long‐term Pmc Changessupporting

confidence: 60%

Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere

2016

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Observations of polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) from the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) satellite instruments are used to characterize variability and trends from 1979 to 2014. The SBUV PMC record indicates decadal oscillations during the 1980s and 1990s, which are expected to result from the 11 year solar cycle. This oscillation is absent in the recent decade, however, and we speculate that solar cycle effects at PMC altitudes during the 1980s and 1990s may have been fortuitously amplified by stratospheric warming due to volcanic eruptions which occurred near solar maximum. SBUV trend results are compared with temperature, water vapor, and PMCs from the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics and Transport (MIMAS) model. Both SBUV and the model indicate positive trends in PMC vertically integrated water content (IWC), which increase toward higher latitudes. Using analysis of Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) observations, the SBUV IWC trends are expressed in terms of the underlying changes in temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere. SBUV indicates cooling trends that increase toward higher latitudes (−0.5 ± 0.2 K decade−1 at 77°N), consistent with the MIMAS model and scant observations. SBUV indicates increasing water vapor in the Northern Hemisphere upper mesosphere (0.07 ± 0.03 ppmv decade−1 at 77°N, insignificant in the Southern Hemisphere), with values that are consistent with MIMAS but less than expected due to increasing methane.

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Section: Long‐term Pmc Changessupporting

confidence: 60%

Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere

2016

Self Cite

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“…Siskind et al . [] find that IWC values observed by Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and occurrence frequency values observed by CIPS in the NH 2011–2012 seasons did not show the decrease expected as solar activity increased in cycle 24. The level of Lyman alpha flux observed in 2009 at the minimum of solar cycle 23 is comparable to previous solar minimum values in 1986 and 1996, so it seems unlikely that a change in the nature of solar activity is responsible for this result.…”

Section: Long‐term Trend Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hervig and Stevens [] also state that their SBUV results are consistent with the behavior of CIPS and SOFIE data during 2007–2012 as discussed by Siskind et al . []. While extensive comparisons have not yet been performed, the SBUV IWC values calculated by Hervig and Stevens [] agree with the IWC values derived in this paper to within approximately 10%, depending on the assumed particle size.…”

Section: Long‐term Trend Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updated PMC trends derived from SBUV data

DeLand

Thomas

2015

JGR Atmospheres

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Previous analysis of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) observed by Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments found that long-term variations in PMC brightness and occurrence frequency were anticorrelated with solar activity and that an increasing secular trend was present at most latitudes. In this paper, long-term PMC variations are presented in terms of ice water content (IWC), a physically based variable which is easier to interpret than previously reported UV albedo values. This model-based conversion from albedo to IWC removes most scattering angle effects. The derived long-term PMC variations in the SBUV data set are qualitatively the same using either an empirically derived adjustment for local time effects or no adjustment (i.e., assuming cancelation of interannual variations in tidally induced amplitude and/or phase). When we use stratospheric ozone variations as a proxy for mesospheric temperature changes, as suggested by recent model studies, we can explain more of the long-term IWC variability than if we use a linear trend. These results show that PMC ice water content in bright clouds increased rapidly from 1979 through the late 1990s and has been approximately constant from the late 1990s through 2013. The numerical value and sign of this trend during the last 15 years depend on the choice of end points and latitude band. Simultaneously, the solar response of IWC observed by SBUV has weakened during the most recent cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, but increased in the Southern Hemisphere.

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“…Siskind et al . [] suggested a link between space traffic and increased PMC formation in 2011 and 2012. Our simulations suggest a large number of rocket launches could greatly increase PMC formation in the future.…”

Section: Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature Perturbationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global atmospheric response to emissions from a proposed reusable space launch system

et al. 2017

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Modern reusable launch vehicle technology may allow high flight rate space transportation at low cost. Emissions associated with a hydrogen fueled reusable rocket system are modeled based on the launch requirements of developing a space-based solar power system that generates present-day global electric energy demand. Flight rates from 10 4 to 10 6 per year are simulated and sustained to a quasisteady state. For the assumed rocket engine, H 2 O and NO X are the primary emission products; this also includes NO X produced during reentry heating. For a base case of 10 5 flights per year, global stratospheric and mesospheric water vapor increase by approximately 10 and 100%, respectively. As a result, high-latitude cloudiness increases in the lower stratosphere and near the mesopause by as much as 20%. Increased water vapor also results in global effective radiative forcing of about 0.03 W/m 2 . NO X produced during reentry exceeds meteoritic production by more than an order of magnitude, and along with in situ stratospheric emissions, results in a 0.5% loss of the globally averaged ozone column, with column losses in the polar regions exceeding 2%.

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Recent observations of high mass density polar mesospheric clouds: A link to space traffic?

Cited by 29 publications

References 22 publications

Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere

Decadal variability in PMCs and implications for changing temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere

Updated PMC trends derived from SBUV data

Global atmospheric response to emissions from a proposed reusable space launch system

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