Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

Christakos, George; Olea, Ricardo A.; Yu, Hwa‐Lung

doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2006.12.011

Cited by 76 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The longest stage is the second stage, in which the disease is transported across ∼4,000 km from the mountains of western Central Asia to the coast of the Black Sea. The distance covered in 10-12 y indicates a transport rate of ∼333-400 km·y −1 , which falls between the rate at which plague spread during the third pandemic in China [median of 123 km·y −1 (27)] and during the Black Death in Europe [median of 1,330 km·y −1 (28)]. Although the mode of transmission is currently unknown, a plausible suggestion is that caravans passing through Asian plague foci were responsible for transporting plague between Asia and Europe: camels are known to become infected relatively easy from infected fleas in plague foci, and can transmit the disease to humans (29).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Schmid

Büntgen

Easterday

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

240

160

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The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Schmid

Büntgen

Easterday

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

240

160

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“…Each stage requires the interdisciplinary effort of individuals familiar and receptive to important science integration goals, extensively discussed in the public health literature (Gatrell 2002;Christakos et al 2005;Ebi et al 2005). The SEKS-GUI computer software library (spatiotemporal epistematics knowledge synthesis graphical user interface; for the most recent user manual, see Kolovos et al 2006) is used in the implementation stage of knowledge synthesis.…”

Section: The Seks-gui Software Librarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research studies have shown that, depending on the situation, the SEKS-GUI framework can integrate natural laws, exposure-population effect associations, epidemic relations, and carcinogenesis models expressed in a stochastic form (Serre and Christakos 1999;Christakos and Kolovos 1999;Kolovos et al 2002;Serre et al 2003;Quilfen et al 2004;Christakos et al 2002Christakos et al , 2004Christakos et al , 2005. Automatic incorporation of core knowledge in SEKS-GUI by means of interactive screens is a major area of ongoing research and development.…”

Section: A Brief Tour Of Seks-guimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…13. The comparative modelling of Black Death in Europe versus bubonic plague in India led to a number of interesting findings (Christakos et al 2007). Geographical epidemic indicators confirmed that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague.…”

Section: Black Death Epidemic In Europementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A detailed presentation of stochastics, in general, and the S/ TRF model, in particular, can be found in Christakos (1991Christakos ( , 1992, Christakos and Hristopulos (1998) discuss several of its applications in health sciences. Epistematics involves models of the processes (perceptual, intellectual and linguistic) by which knowledge and understanding are achieved and communicated; these models include both mental constructions of the actual health system and the general conditions of the mind that enable scientists to develop different disciplines that operate in an autonomous way but allow disciplinary integration to obtain a realistic world view (Knorr Cetina 1999;Keil and Wilson 2000;Meyer and van der Hoek 2004;Rescher 2005;Christakos et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Interactive spatiotemporal modelling of health systems: the SEKS–GUI framework

Kolovos

Christakos

et al. 2007

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

101

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This paper describes the spatiotemporal epistematics knowledge synthesis and graphical user interface (SEKS-GUI) framework and its application in medical geography problems. Based on sound theoretical reasoning, the interactive software library of SEKS-GUI explores heterogeneous (spatially non-homogeneous and temporally non-stationary) health attribute distributions (disease incidence, mortality, human exposure, epidemic propagation etc.); expresses the health system's dependence structure using (ordinary and generalized) spatiotemporal covariance models; synthesizes core knowledge bases, empirical evidence and multi-sourced system uncertainty; and generates a meaningful picture of the real-world system using spacetime dependent probability functions and associated maps of health attributes. The implementation stages of the SEKS-GUI library are described in considerable detail using appropriate screens. The wide applicability of SEKS-GUI is demonstrated by reviewing a selection of real-world case studies.

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Spatiotemporal fusion of multiple‐satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products using Bayesian maximum entropy method

Tang

Zhu

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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Merging multisensor aerosol optical depth (AOD) products is an effective way to produce more spatiotemporally complete and accurate AOD products. A spatiotemporal statistical data fusion framework based on a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was developed for merging satellite AOD products in East Asia. The advantages of the presented merging framework are that it not only utilizes the spatiotemporal autocorrelations but also explicitly incorporates the uncertainties of the AOD products being merged. The satellite AOD products used for merging are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Level‐2 AOD products (MOD04_L2) and the Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Deep Blue Level 2 AOD products (SWDB_L2). The results show that the average completeness of the merged AOD data is 95.2%,which is significantly superior to the completeness of MOD04_L2 (22.9%) and SWDB_L2 (20.2%). By comparing the merged AOD to the Aerosol Robotic Network AOD records, the results show that the correlation coefficient (0.75), root‐mean‐square error (0.29), and mean bias (0.068) of the merged AOD are close to those (the correlation coefficient (0.82), root‐mean‐square error (0.19), and mean bias (0.059)) of the MODIS AOD. In the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations, the accuracy of the merged AOD is higher than those of MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs. Even in regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs are missing, the accuracy of the merged AOD is also close to the accuracy of the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations.

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Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

Cited by 76 publications

References 28 publications

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Interactive spatiotemporal modelling of health systems: the SEKS–GUI framework

Spatiotemporal fusion of multiple‐satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products using Bayesian maximum entropy method

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