Recent weakening relationship between the springtime Indo‐Pacific warm pool SST zonal gradient and the subsequent summertime western Pacific subtropical high

Abstract

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) substantially affects the climate in the Pacific and East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that the springtime Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature zonal gradient (SSTG) could be used as a predictor of the subsequent summertime WPSH's intensity. Here, we find that the interannual variability of the springtime IPWP SSTG has greatly decreased after the late 1990s, accompanied by the weakened relationship between the springtime IPWP SSTG and the following summertime WPSH, which may reduce the efficiency of the springtime IPWP SSTG as a key predictor for the summertime WPSH in recent decades. This observed recent weakening IPWP SSTG–WPSH relationship could be largely contributed by the decadal shift of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the WPSH around the late 1990s. The ENSO regime shift from the eastern Pacific (EP) type to the central Pacific (CP) type could alter the spatial pattern of the springtime IPWP sea surface temperature (SST) dipole and further weaken the local air–sea interaction between the underlying IPWP SST and the WPSH. From another perspective of the WPSH decadal shift, the WPSH‐related first leading mode before (after) the late 1990s, characterized by a large‐scale uniform (dipole) pattern with an oscillating period of ~4–5 year (~2–3 year), tended to promote a stronger (weaker) linkage with the springtime IPWP SSTG. In addition, the recent enhancement of the tropical Atlantic SST influences is considered to possibly promote the decadal shifts of the ENSO and the WPSH‐related leading mode. After the springtime tropical Atlantic SST was added as a predictor, the predicting skills of the empirical equation for the summertime WPSH could be substantially improved. The results herein have important implications for the further improvement of the seasonal WPSH prediction, which is of great practical significance in the prevention and mitigation of climate disasters.