Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of rubella in Japan, 2012-2013

Saito, Masaya; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0205889

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The result was approximately consistent with the real data. In Japan, the number of reported rubella cases was 17, 000 and the number of reported CRS cases was 45 during 2012–14 [ 4 – 6 , 8 , 9 ]. The ratio of the number of CRS cases to that of rubella cases was about 0.3%.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing catch-up vaccination programs based on analysis of 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Kawasaki City, Japan

Urabe

Tanaka

Oshima³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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During the 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Japan, local governments implemented subsidy programs for catch-up vaccination to mitigate the rubella outbreak and prevent congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). In most local governments, to prevent CRS, eligible persons of the subsidy program were women who were planning to have a child and men who were partners of pregnant women. On the other hand, in Kawasaki City, unimmunized men aged 23–39 years were additionally included in the eligible persons, because they were included in an unimmunized men group resulting from the historical transition of the national routine vaccination in Japan. The number of rubella cases in the city decreased earlier than that in the whole Japan. First, in order to estimate the effect of the catch-up vaccination campaign in Kawasaki City on the epidemic outcome, we performed numerical simulations with a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SVEIR) model incorporating real data. The result indicated that the catch-up vaccination campaign showed a beneficial impact on the early decay of the rubella cases. Second, we numerically compared several different implementation strategies of catch-up vaccinations under a fixed amount of total vaccinations. As a result, we found that early and intensive vaccinations are vital for significant reduction in the number of rubella cases and CRS occurrences. Our study suggests that mathematical models with epidemiological and social data can contribute to identifying the most effective vaccination strategy.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing catch-up vaccination programs based on analysis of 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Kawasaki City, Japan

Urabe

Tanaka

Oshima³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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“…Sumber Viskositas (21) Medis (10 ) Kelarutan Dalam Air (18) Bau (23 ) Titik Leleh (24) Titik Didih (19) Masa Molar (29) Densitas (24) Sifat Fisika (28) Sejarah Pengeboran Minyak (39) Pengolahan Air (26) Kapasitas Kalor (13) Penurunan Titik Beku (14) Kelimpahan CaCl 2 (6) Pengering (22) Sterilisasi Hewan (16) Makanan (10) Sumber Ion Kalsium (11) Kontrol Debu Jalan (17) Proses Indutri (5) Grup Ruang (12) Konstanta Kisi (25) Grup Titik (10) Geometri Koordinasi (15) Struktur Kristal (40) Entalpi Pembentukan Standar (20) Entropi Molar Standar (8; 9) Energi Bebas Gibbs (7) Termokimia (27) CaCl 2…”

Section: Struktur Dan Termokimiaunclassified

Calcium Chloride (CaCl2) : Characteristics and Molecular Interaction in Solution

Alfionita¹,

Zainul²

2019

Preprint

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Kalsium klorida merupakan senyawa anorganik dengan rumus kimia CaCl2 berupa padatan kristal yang tak berwarna pada suhu kamar dan sangat larut dalam air. Dalam analisis struktur molekul Kalsium Klorida (CaCl2), riset ini bertujuan mengetahui karakteristik molekul, struktur, sifat, permukaan, jari-jari molekul, energi stabiliti dan MM2 molekul tersebut. Metoda yang digunakan yaitu penelusuran literatur dengan Endnote X7, metode pemodelan dengan menggunakan software ChemOffice 15.0, dan juga perhitungan matematis. Pada dasarnya untuk menemukan literasi jurnal yang bagus digunakanlah aplikasi Endnote X7 yang dijelaskan melalui fishbone state of art. Senyawa ini juga mempunyai total energi dan juga jari-jari molekul CaCl2 yang hasilnya bisa diketahui dengan menggunakan chemoffice 15.0 yaitu sebesar 526,865 kcal/mol dan 2.730 Å Kemudian untuk mengetahui kecepatan hanyut, konduktiviti, gerakan ion, viskositas, kelarutan dan bilangan transpor digunakan perhitungan matematis dari review jurnal mengenai kalsium klorida. Dimana kalsium klorida mempunyai kapasitas kalor (C), entropi molar standar (So), entalpi pembentukan standar (∆fH) dan energi bebas gibbs (∆fG) yang masing-masingnya mempunyai nilai C 72,89 J/molK, So 108,4 J/molK, ∆fH 795,42 kJ/mol, dan ∆fG -748,81nkJ/mol. Serta nilai kecepatan hanyut didapatkan sebesar 4,5125 V/cm setelah dilakukan perhitungan dengan menggunakan rumus. Nilai viskositas pada suhu 10oC sebesar 1.20, suhu 20oC sebesar 1.02, dan pada suhu 30oC sebesar 0,79. Nilai konduktiviti yang beragam tergantung dari suhu dan spesinya. Dimana nilai konduktiviti pada suhu 25oC sebesar 0.0617 jika nilai molarnya 0.3857 mole/L, 0.1289 jika nilai molarnya 0.905 mole/L.Hasil dari viskositas dan konduktiviti ini dituangkan dalam bentuk grafik.

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“…In the past couple of decades, most papers related to theoretical/mathematical studies of the global spread of transmissible diseases were focused on the mobility of humans over various populations or patches (see Arino and van den Driessche, 2006;Colizza and Vespignani, 2008;Gong and Small, 2018;Saito et al, 2018;Soriano-Paños et al, 2018;Wang and Wu, 2018 and references therein). Frequently, such movements correspond to migration as opposed to temporary visits for a finite period as we consider in our case, or to human transportation on a large spatial scale during relatively long trips.…”

Section: Relationship With Metapopulation Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation

Dansu

Seno

2019

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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a b s t r a c tWith a five dimensional system of ordinary differential equations based on the SIR and SIS models, we consider the dynamics of epidemics in a community which consists of residents and short-stay visitors. Taking different viewpoints to consider public health policies to control the disease, we derive different basic reproduction numbers and clarify their common/different mathematical natures so as to understand their meanings in the dynamics of the epidemic. From our analyses, the short-stay visitor subpopulation could become significant in determining the fate of diseases in the community. Furthermore, our arguments demonstrate that it is necessary to choose one variant of basic reproduction number in order to formulate appropriate public health policies.

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Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of rubella in Japan, 2012-2013

Cited by 9 publications

References 27 publications

Comparing catch-up vaccination programs based on analysis of 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Kawasaki City, Japan

Comparing catch-up vaccination programs based on analysis of 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Kawasaki City, Japan

Calcium Chloride (CaCl2) : Characteristics and Molecular Interaction in Solution

A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation

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