Recounting the Dead: An Analysis of ISAF Caused Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Abstract

In wars fought against insurgents, civilian casualties present the challenging dilemma of balancing security and stability while targeting insurgents who operate within the civilian population. In Afghanistan, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has made minimizing civilian casualties a top-tier strategic issue. Yet beyond annual reports, there has been a lack of data-driven analysis into the number of civilians killed by ISAF operations. This research investigates ISAF-caused civilian casualties between 2010 and 2013, incorporating civilian casualty events to investigate changes in ISAF “lethality.” This analysis finds that although ISAF-caused civilian casualties decreased overall, this was mitigated by the tactic employed (airpower vs. on the ground operations). The implications of this analysis for theories of military adaptation, future population-centric operations, and current military operations (e.g., in Iraq and Syria) are discussed.

Wargaming the use of intermediate force capabilities in the gray zone

“…It was also identified that NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)-caused civilian casualties had a highly detrimental effect on the populations' perception of ISAF (i.e., decreased support for ISAF), encourage insurgent recruitment and subsequent attacks, and provided insurgents with a strategic narrative that was highly damaging to Coalition efforts in Afghanistan. 41 In 2014-2017, NATO SAS-094 research group conducted a study to identify where NLWs could make operational contributions to mission success. What they identified was that adversaries' use of the civilian populations helped complicate Coalition targeting and engagement strategies, and reduced NATO's military superiority over insurgent forces.…”

“…This observation echoes the findings of Shortland et al where lack of a response option (in this case doing nothing) had the same effect as using force. 41 It provided the adversary with the strategic initiative and a narrative that was highly damaging to the NATO Task Force's activities/mission.…”

“…It was also identified that NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)-caused civilian casualties had a highly detrimental effect on the populations’ perception of ISAF (i.e., decreased support for ISAF), encourage insurgent recruitment and subsequent attacks, and provided insurgents with a strategic narrative that was highly damaging to Coalition efforts in Afghanistan. 41…”

Dynamic Intersection of Military and Society

“…One of the key questions surrounding public support is concern over civilian and military casualties (Shortland et al 2019). When will the public support a war with a significant risk of heavy casualties?…”

The need for better data in the explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA) debate

“…Even the efforts of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan to record civilian casualties was characterized at one point as lacking 'data driven analysis'. 5 These efforts are made in the context of detailed records of ordnance deployed, alongside all the resources of modern military information gathering. In response ISAF introduced 'the first-ever large-scale civilian casualty tracking cell initiated by a warring party'.…”