Recurrence Time Distributions of Large Earthquakes in Eastern Iran

Khodaverdian, Alireza; Zafarani, Hamid; Schultz, Kasey W.; Rahimian, M.

doi:10.1785/0120160077

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…This long required period of observation could be justified by the fact that large-magnitude earthquakes affect the stress state and consequently the size and recurrence time of earthquakes on other adjacent faults, finally causing earthquake rate changes in time (Stein 1999). This fact is also supported by physics-based long-term earthquake simulations in Iran (Khodaverdian et al 2016a, Khodaverdian et al 2016c, which showed that long-term seismicity rates should be considered for seismic hazard analyses. Paleoseismological studies (Le Dortz et al 2009, Le Dortz et al 2011, Foroutan et al 2012, Foroutan et al 2014) also indicate that the recurrence time of large-magnitude earthquakes on a given fault in Iran could be more than 1000-2000 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…For the Alborz, the range of earthquake depths is 5-30 km, while more earthquakes occur at a depth of 5-15 km and these values for Eastern Iran are 0-20 km and 5-15 km, respectively (Engdahl et al 2006). 2018)) (see Figure 5) and the fault plane characteristics are reported in different studies (e.g., Khodaverdian et al (2016a) for Azerbaijan, Khodaverdian et al (2016c) for Eastern Iran, and Bachmanov et al (2004) for the Zagros and Central Iran). Those studies and the references therein have been used to define the predominant faulting plane characteristics (i.e., strike, dip, and rake) of near-fault zones.…”

Section: Seismic Area Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 74%

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A probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for Iran

Lotfi

Zafarani²,

Khodaverdian³

2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as the most prevalent approach to evaluate earthquake hazard, is commonly based on earthquake catalogs. Although previous studies show that the recurrence time of large-magnitude (Mw > 7.0) events in Iran is more than ~1000-2000 years, the available instrumentally recorded earthquakes are limited to less than 100 years. With the idea of having another proxy for seismicity rates, we propose a methodology to evaluate activity rates from strain rates in a combination of regional estimates of  and max m .Considering the comprehensive deformation model of the Iranian Plateau, we found that the deformation-based occurrence rates are more than the catalog-based occurrence rates in all seismotectonic provinces in the Iranian Plateau. Except for Central Iran, the ratios of the deformation-based to the catalog-based occurrence rate are between 1.21-3.95. For the first time, a probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for the Iranian plateau is also developed and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for 10% and 2% POEs in 50 years are estimated. The highest levels of PGA are found in the Azerbaijan and Alborz seismotectonic provinces, where the highest value of strain rates is located. The spatial averages of PGA with 10% POE in 50 years from the deformation-based model are up to 30% higher than the results of a traditional probabilistic seismic hazard for almost all provinces except the Zagros region.

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